Cincinnati is streaking into the red

The Cincinnati Reds are the current owners of a nine game losing streak and 18-26 record and the fourth position in the National League Central Division, already 10.5 games out of the division lead. That number represents the third biggest hole at this point of the year better than just their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers (13.5 GB) and the Oakland Athletics (12.5 GB).

What makes this worth interest is that the Reds are stacked. They have incredible pitching, hitting and defense when they are playing at their best, but it is obviously not all coming together at the moment. The current losing streak came against teams that are a combined 92-85 and removing those nine wins would drop that down to below .500. This month alone, the Reds have been swept by the below .500 Indians, lost series to the White Sox (19-23) and Braves (22-22), and are looking well on their way to another series loss against one of the worst teams in baseball, the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies, however, can go along with that moniker and not feel exceptionally bad since they were expected to lose in an otherwise deep NL West. The Reds weren’t supposed to roll over two months in. With a healthy Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips manning the right side of the infield, Johnny Cueto to start and Aroldis Chapman to finish, they should be competing for a Wild Card spot at the least instead of competing with the Brewers to stay out of the cellar.

Interestingly enough, all those players listed are playing well right now. Chapman is perfect in his limited save opportunities, Cueto is nearing another All-Star quality season and both Votto and Phillips are hitting. Add to that Todd Frazier with 13 home runs, Billy Hamilton with 17 steals and Tony Cingrani becoming dominant in the bullpen after being a starter last year and this seems like as well balanced of a team as any in the Majors. Except, perhaps, for the rotation after Cueto.

The Reds have used seven starters this year, but one of those was removed as an option after just two starts as Homer Bailey is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. Cueto has also been out recently, due to general stiffness, and the current rotation is the less than reliable group of Anthony DeSclafini, Raisel Iglesias, Mike Leake, Mike Lorenzen and Jason Marquis.

The chart above highlights the particulars and considering the Reds defense has been just barely above league average, it would be a surprise to see any Reds starter outplay their FIP. Seeing three of those in the current rotation well above 5.00 and a lot of BABIP well below .300 should be scary for the Reds. This doesn’t appear to be a situation that will be fixed with time and the sooner Leake and Marquis are removed and replaced by Cueto and nearly anyone else (Cingrani, Dylan Axelrod or Jon Moscot from Louisville would be the best options at this point) the better.

Removing those two with even replacement level players would make this rotation so much more devastating, particularly if Iglesias can continue to dominate batters with his slider. In his last start he went just three innings due to a high pitch count against Cleveland, but struck out six and allowed just two runs.

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 24: Raisel Iglesias #26 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on May 24, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

The Reds do have some decisions to make this season and could need to make them shortly. They have six players who could be leaving in free agency at the end of the year, including Cueto and Brayan Pena, who has filled in nicely behind the plate while Devin Mesorasco has tried to figure out if he is hurt or not (he has now decided that he is and went on the DL Monday).

While there will be little lost in the departing of Marquis, Leake or Manny Parra, the Reds have to think of a rapidly escalating salary level when considering resigning Cueto. They still owe the majority of Votto’s $225M deal as well as Bailey’s $105M with lofty arbitration raises due to Chapman and Cozart in 2016.

It is still too early, particularly with Iglesias just joining the rotation and Jay Bruce heating up at the plate, to give up on the Reds. They are just six games out of the second Wild Card and could use the rest of the series with Colorado as well as two upcoming with the Phillies to be back to .500 by mid June. At the moment, the Cardinals look as good as anyone in baseball and with a four game winning streak, the Pirates have returned to .500 and will likely make a reasonable pass at the division before this is over. With those two in the way, a divisional title may be out of the question, but a return to the play-offs should not be.

Because of those escalating contracts, the Reds will have trouble adding more talent this off-season and, while much of the team is extended for the long term, those are generally older players like Phillips, who are on the wrong side of their prime years. At one point, this team looked like another coming of the Big Red Machine, but after years of solid competition without a World Series visit, this could be their final chance.

Even if the Reds decide they have no chance and decide to blow things up, dealing Cueto, Pena and possibly Phillips (signed through 2017 for $27M over the final two years) or Bruce (signed through 2016 for $12.5M), the deals to Votto and Bailey will make rebuilding much more difficult than normal, expecting similar problems to what the Twins have been dealing with because of Joe Mauer. With little hope for the near future, even slight hope for the present should take precedence. With that hope alive, there may just be a few stars who are still playing in Cincinnati after the All-Star Game leaves town.