July is almost upon us and that means that the MLB trade deadline is fast approaching. Who will be buyers and who will be sellers? The writers here at The Outside Corner have it covered. Below is a comprehensive list of the top potential trade targets with predictions (for fun, of course). Is your favorite team in line to upgrade for the rest of 2011 or are they about to land the prospect(s) that will take them to the next level for next season and beyond?
Quick hits
Ivan Rodriguez, C, WAS – Wilson Ramos has taken over as the main man in Washington, but Pudge has proven he can still help a club defensively and a little with the bat. The Giants would make sense as a possible destination.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU – The Astros’ situation is a little tricky. They’re obviously not going to contend this season and probably not next, but Wandy has an extremely manageable contract through 2014 and could be the leader of their next contending team. His manageable contract also makes him an extremely attractive trade target.
J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL – If San Francisco doesn’t have the goods to land Jose Reyes, they might be able to offer Baltimore enough to snag Hardy. However, there has been talk about a contract extension for Hardy to stay in Baltimore.
Mark Buehrle, SP, CWS – With 10-and-5 rights, Buehrle cannot be traded without his consent. However, he has been very vocal in the past about wanting to pitch for the Cardinals. If the White Sox fall out of contention, Buehrle might waive his no-trade rights to pitch for a contender.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC – Though Frenchy has put up solid HR/SB numbers, he continues to hack his way to a .300 or worse OBP, which holds his trade value back. If anything, he might go to a contender in a platoon or as a fourth outfielder.
Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN – The Twins are in an interesting situation. A few weeks ago, they looked destined to be sellers, but a recent surge has then inching their way up the standings. If they do become sellers, teams would likely be interested in both Kubel and Cuddyer, both of who’s contracts expire after this season. Of course, Kubel will have to get back on the field and prove he’s healthy first. Cuddyer’s versatility would be attractive to a number of teams. Given the strength in their pitching, it seems that the Twins think of themselves as contenders.
Top potential trade targets:
18. Kerry Wood, RP, CHC
Possible Destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Texas, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona, Philadelphia
Before landing on the DL, Wood was putting up good numbers (2.55 ERA) and would be extremely affordable for any team.
Prediction: The Yankees try to bring Wood back to New York, but the Red Sox steal their thunder (see: Ryan Depmster prediction below).
OC staff picks: Yankees (1), Indians (1), Rangers (1), St Louis (1)
17. Juan Pierre, OF, CHW
Possible destinations: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Arizona, Colorado
The White Sox may be buyers or sellers or both. Juan Pierre is one of their expiring contracts and he could fit a need for a few teams either as a starter of fourth outfielder.
Prediction: If the White Sox do indeed become sellers, the Braves will jump in and swing a deal for Pierre to serve as insurance for Martin Prado and Nate McLouth.
OC staff picks: White Sox (3), Rangers (1)
16. Matt Capps, CL, MIN
Possible Destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Texas, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona, Philadelphia
The Twins recent surge may turn them into buyers by the deadline, but if they become sellers, Matt Capps will be a wanted commodity. His numbers aren’t as good as they were last season when the Twins gave up top catching prospect Wilson Ramos to gain his services, but teams are seemingly always looking to bolster their bullpen for the stretch run.
Prediction: If the Twins are sellers, the Reds jump in with two mid-to-low-level prospects and add Capps for the stretch run.
OC staff picks: Diamondbacks (1), Brewers (1), Cardinals (1), Rangers (1)
15. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD
Possible destinations: Boston, Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Francisco
Ludwick has a suppressed 6.6 HR/FB rate in PETCO. Any team willing to take that into consideration might find themselves with a decent mid-level power hitter for the rest of the 2011 season.
Prediction: The Reds think putting Ludwick in a great hitter’s park is a good idea. They give up a mid-level prospect to get the deal done.
OC staff picks: Reds (1), Rangers (1), Phillies (1), Cardinals (1)
14. Livan Hernandez, SP, WAS
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Texas, Oakland, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona
Despite a fastball that resembles most pitcher’s changeups, Livan keeps getting the job done by limiting walks and home runs. Proven veteran starters always look attractive as short-term rentals.
Prediction: The Indians give up mid-to-low-level prospect for two months of Livan’s services.
OC staff picks: Cardinals (1), Braves (1), Nationals (2)
13. Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHC
Possible destinations: Boston, Detroit, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles (NL)
Need a shot of OBP, anyone? Fukudome’s four-year deal with the Cubs is set to expire and any sort of prospect that Cubs could get in a trade would help to ease some of the pain caused over the length of that deal. They won’t get much in return, but there are sure to be teams out there that could use a player with a .390-plus OBP.
Prediction: Seattle gives up a mid-to-low-level prospect and moves Fukudome to left field, giving them an all-Japanese corner outfield.
OC staff picks: Diamonbacks (2), Tigers (1), Giants (1)
12. Carlos Zambrano, SP, CHC
Possible Destinations: New York (AL), Boston
The Cubs want to move Big-Z, but his contract runs through 2012 with a possible (albeit unlikely) vesting option for 2013. That means any team looking to acquire Zambrano would have to pay the remainder of his $17.75M from this season as well as $18M next season (2013 vesting option would be worth $19.25M), which limits his potential destinations. Zambrano’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but his fastball and slider have both been highly effective pitches, so the pure stuff still seems fine.
Prediction: The Cubs are willing to eat some salary, but Zambrano’s contract, antics and only mediocre performance keep him in Chicago…for the time being.
OC staff picks: Yankees (3), Diamondbacks (1)
11. Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC
Possible destinations: Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Francisco
Now back to 100-percent health after an early season hand injury, Pena is launching home runs and drawing walks like he has always done in the past. Both Seattle and San Francisco are in the hunt and in big need for offensive help.
Prediction: Seattle stays in the race and are willing to pay the price for Pena’s power, giving up young starter Taijuan Walker and power bullpen arm Dan Cortez.
OC staff picks: Mariners (2), Tigers (1), Rays (1)
10. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
Possible destinations: Detroit, Chicago (AL), St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado
With declining power numbers and an expensive club option for 2012 ($16M with a $2M buyout), it looks as though A-Ram’s days playing for the north siders are numbered. The Cubs need to get younger and trading A-Ram would help accomplish that. If A-Ram is traded, his 2012 option vests, but he does have the option to void it regardless (also voiding the $2M buyout). Any team trading for him may have to pay him $16M next season or may not have his services at all.
Prediction: White Sox GM Kenny Williams is known for making bold moves. If the Pale Hose stay in the AL central race, they acquire Ramirez to take over for the .248/.262/.315 hitting Brent Morel
OC staff picks: Cubs (2), Braves (1), Mariners (1)
9. Paul Maholm, SP, PIT
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Texas, Cincinnati, Arizona
Any team looking to acquire Maholm will have the option to renew his services through the 2012 season ($9.75M club option with a 750K buyout). The Pirates may see this as a tremendous sell high opportunity given his 3.29 ERA despite a 1.8 K/BB rate. With a young and improving club, trading Maholm at his peak value could pay off big time.
Prediction: The Yankees are said to prefer lefties and rentals and both of those specifications pertain to Maholm. Desperate need for help in the rotation leads to a deal involving catching prospect Austin Romine and perhaps a mid-level prospect or two. Lyle Overbay also heads to New York in the deal to provide a left-handed bat off of the bench.
OC staff picks: Pirates (3), Diamondbacks (1)
8. Edwin Jackson, SP, CWS
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, Milwaukee
A free agent after the season, Jackson may find himself in a unique position of being a player traded from a contender to a contender. The White Sox seem to have the rotation depth to make such a move and their asking price for Jackson may be nothing more than an upgrade to their bullpen.
Prediction: Oakland hangs around enough to take a chance at contention and deals Grant Balfour straight up for Jackson. The White Sox get their bullpen help and the A’s deal from their depth to help their rotation.
OC staff picks: White Sox (2), Diamondbacks (1), Rangers (1)
7. Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Texas, Oakland, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona
Guthire heads into his third year of arbitration and will likely get a substantial raise from the $5.75M he’s making this season. The Orioles are still a ways away from contending in the AL East and may see Guthrie’s current success as a great opportunity to sell high. Cost effective starting pitchers almost always bring good returns in a trade and Baltimore should be looking to cash in on some young talent.
Prediction: Arizona stays in the race long enough to want to make a run at it. Paul Goldschmidt may be Baltimore’s asking price.
OC staff picks: Orioles (2), Rays (1), Tigers (1)
6. Francisco Rodriguez, CL, NYM
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Tampa Bay
K-Rod has made recent comments suggesting that he’d be willing to waive any no-trade rights his contract carries in order to pitch for a contender. An ideal situation for K-Rod would be to stay in the big apple, moving from Queens to the Bronx. The Yankees haven’t had much luck with regard to some of their bigger bullpen arms (Soriano and Joba) and would love to add K-Rod to set up for Mariano Rivera. Using K-Rod as a setup man would keep his 2012 option from vesting, making him a free agent at the end of the season.
Prediction: As you may have guessed, I see the Yankees making a deal for K-Rod, though it’s tough to say which prospects will be involved. It shouldn’t cost a top prospect, but we’ll see how desperate the Yankees are by late July.
5. Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM
Possible Destinations: Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle, Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Arizona
Beltran enters his first free agent off season since signing his mega-deal with the Mets back in 2005. Beltran never really lived up to the size of his 7yr/$119M deal and the Mets are more than willing to part ways. Beltran has been able to stay on the field and stay productive this season. Teams looking for an offensive boost should be willing to rent his services for the rest of 2011.
Prediction: The Tigers build a package around pitching prospect Andy Oliver and bring in Beltran for the stretch run.
OC staff picks: Braves (3), Yankees (1)
4. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Texas, Oakland, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona
If the Dodgers can’t climb their way up the standings in April, they’ll have one of the most attractive starting pitchers to use as trade bait.
Prediction: The Reds make the biggest deadline splash and Kuroda is part of their wheeling and dealing. Headed to Los Angeles is Yonder Alonso and perhaps another prospect.
OC staff picks: Dodgers (2), Giants (1), Red Sox (1)
3. Ryan Dempster, SP, CHC
Possible destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Texas, Cincinnati, Arizona
Dempster has a $14M player option for the 2012 season and if he continues to pitch as well as he has since the end of April, he could probably do better than one year and $14M on the open market. That makes for an interesting situation as the deadline approaches. Look for the Yankees and Red Sox to get highly involved in trade discussion for Dempster.
Prediction: The Red Sox make a last minute deal sending Josh Reddick, Felix Doubront and Lars Anderson to the Cubs in exchange for Dempster and Kerry Wood.
OC staff picks: Cubs (1), Rays (1), Reds (1), Yankees (1)
2. Heath Bell, CL, SD
Possible Destinations: New York (AL), Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Texas, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Arizona, Philadelphia
Bell took over as the face of the Padres when Adrian Gonzalez was traded to Boston this past offseason and he continues to perform as one of the best closers in baseball. As a half-season rental, Bell could close or set up for a number of potential suitors. The Padres have tremendous depth in their bullpen, so re-signing Bell doesn’t look like a necessity or a probability. They’ll likely flip Bell before the deadline and bring in more prospects as they try and rebuild toward future NL West contention.
Prediction: The Rangers get nervous about the tight AL West race and acquire Bell in a deal based around their top shortstop prospect, the young Jurickson Profar.
OC staff picks: Phillies (3), Rangers (1)
1. Jose Reyes, SS, NYM
Possible Destinations: San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Detroit, Milwaukee. St. Louis
Reyes is one of the most desirable players likely to be available via the trade market. His current triple slash line of .341/.385/.517 is outstanding and his 4.2 WAR so far are second to only Jose Bautista and ties him with Adrian Gonzalez for the highest WAR in all of baseball. The Mets are in a ton of trouble both in the standings and with their finances. With Reyes wanting to cash in with a huge contract this offseason, the Mets may have little choice than to move him before the trade deadline. They should be able to haul in a bounty of top prospects in a trade, which is what they need as they try to rebuild toward contention.
Prediction: Cincinnati snags Reyes with a blockbuster package based around either top catching prospect Devin Mesorasco or Yasmani Grandal.
OC staff picks: Giants (2), Reds (2)
Contract information from Cots Contracts
