We’ve now passed the 40-game mark for the 2015 MLB season. Between that and Memorial Day coming up on the calendar, it’s time to start wondering what is really happening, whether or not teams are past a hot start, a rough start or a fluky stage and have to be viewed seriously.
At this point of the season, no team is getting more of the “Are they for real?” question than the Houston Astros. Going into Thursday’s slate of games, the Astros have the best record in the American League at 27-14, a half-game ahead of the Royals. Houston also holds the largest first-place lead over the other five division leaders, 5.5 games ahead of the Angels.
This is a franchise only one year removed from three consecutive 100-loss seasons. In 2013, the Astros lost 111 games. They made a 19-game improvement to 70 victories last year, looking poised to take a significant step toward respectability and surpass the .500 mark this season. Maybe a move close to contention wasn’t far off, but could that be realistic in a division with the Angels, Mariners and Athletics expected to fight for the AL West crown or a wild-card bid?
Yet here we are on May 21 with the Astros in first place. Houston has won seven of its past eight games, sweeping four games from the Blue Jays and taking two of three from the A’s. At the end of April going into May, this team put together a 10-game winning streak, during which it built a seven-game lead in the AL West.
But here’s what should concern the rest of MLB: This Astros team could get even better.
It’s only a matter of time before Houston calls up baseball’s No. 1 prospect, shortstop Carlos Correa. The 20-year-old looked to be a year away from the majors after finishing last season at the advanced Class A level. Correa began the year in Double-A, but soon proved too good for the competition, batting .385 with a 1.185 OPS, 15 doubles, seven home runs and 15 stolen bases in just 133 plate appearances. So far, he’s handling Triple-A just fine too, compiling a .316/.357/.500 in 42 PAs.
KISSIMMEE, FL – FEBRUARY 21: Carlos Correa #84 of the Houston Astros poses for a portrait during photo day on February 21, 2014 at Osceola County Stadium in Kissimmee, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
The Astros could certainly use an upgrade in production at shortstop. Jed Lowrie looked like he could block Correa for a season, beginning the season with a .300 average and .999 OPS. But a torn ligament in his right thumb will keep him out until after the All-Star break. In his absence, Marwin Gonzalez is batting .241 and Jonathan Villar is hitting .229, and both players are below-average defensively. Even if it seems early — and Correa is showing it likely wouldn’t be — he’d be an upgrade at the position.
What happens when Lowrie returns? Figure that out later, especially if Correa is playing well. And if he isn’t, it wouldn’t be a bad thing to send him back down to the minors.
Houston has already broken the seal on bringing in reinforcements from the minors, calling up Lance McCullers for a spot in the rotation after he struck out 43 batters in 29 innings and compiled an 0.62 ERA. In his first start (May 18), the 21-year-old couldn’t go five innings, but did strike out five batters in 4.2 frames. Preston Tucker also got the call after batting .320 with a 1.028 OPS and 10 homers at Triple-A.
Jon Singleton is seemingly blocked by Chris Carter and Evan Gattis (and arguably Tucker as well) between first base and designated hitter, which is why he began the season in Triple-A. But with Carter batting .167 and Gattis hitting .196 (though both players are hitting for power), the Astros may have to give Singleton a shot at one of those positions. The 23-year-old has a .282/.394/.620 slash average with eight doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 41 RBI in 170 plate appearances.
Doubts over the Astros’ continued success will continue to linger as long as Houston carries three hitters in its everyday lineup batting under .200, with George Springer (.195) joining Carter and Gattis. Two other regulars — Luis Valbuena (.211) and Jason Castro (.217) — aren’t doing much better, in terms of batting average. But Valbuena leads the team with 10 home runs (tied for fourth in the AL), so the Astros can probably live with the low average while the power is there.
Actually, that compromise is something that applies to the entire lineup. Houston has the worst team batting average in the AL at .231, yet leads the league with 61 home runs and ranks third with 141 walks. Hitting the ball out of the park and drawing walks has been a successful formula for MLB teams before. One twist the Astros are adding to getting on base is speed; they also lead MLB with 37 stolen bases. This isn’t a station-to-station club, nor does it sit and wait for the three-run homer.
HOUSTON, TX – MAY 20: Evan Gattis #11 of the Houston Astros receives a high five from Colby Rasmus #28 after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on May 20, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Of course, no team is going to win consistently without good pitching and the Astros are no exception. Houston ranks third in the AL with a 3.47 team ERA, holding opposing batters to a .235 average and .666 OPS. Dallas Keuchel has been one of the best starters in MLB, compiling a 6-0 record and 1.67 ERA.
But it’s the Astros’ bullpen that is a key reason for its pitching success. Only the Royals have a better ERA from their relievers than Houston’s 2.20 mark. Closer Luke Gregerson has an unseemly 4.08 ERA, but as is often the case with relievers, that can be traced back to one bad outing. Oakland roughed him up for two runs, two hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning in his most recent appearance.
Where the bullpen truly shines is with the setup crew and middle relief. Chad Qualls has 18 strikeouts in 15.1 innings and could take over for Gregerson if he continues to struggle. Pat Neshek has 15 Ks in 16 innings with no walks. Tony Sipp has 18 Ks in 17 innings with an 0.53 ERA. And Will Harris is blowing away the opposition, striking out 25 batters in 20 innings.
An interesting test awaits heading into Memorial Day weekend. The Astros have a four-game set at Comerica Park versus the Tigers, who could be one of the best teams in the AL. (Detroit is limping into the series, however, losing three of its past four to fall 2.5 games behind Kansas City in the AL Central.) The Tigers haven’t been outstanding at home, compiling a 12-10 record so far. Meanwhile, Houston is 12-4 on the road.
From Detroit, the Astros have three games in Baltimore before returning home to play a White Sox team that appears to have righted itself to begin playing up to preseason expectations. That’s a pretty tough 10-game stretch, and if Houston gets through that run successfully, it may be time to slide those “Are they for real?” doubts under the table. Even with plenty of baseball yet to be played, maybe those kinds of questions should already be shelved with the Astros off to their best start in franchise history.
