Going into the 2015 season, the American League Central looked to be the toughest in all of baseball and it has proven to be to this point with the AL East and West combining to win just 41% of their games against what for many years was the weakest division in baseball. In that division, prior to the season beginning, it seemed there were four teams with legitimate chances to win not only the Central, but the AL pennant. There were also the Twins.
While that may still wind up being solid prognosticating, the Twins are not going to go down quite as easily as expected and are currently riding a streak where they have won seven of their last eight and 15 of their last 22. Sitting in third place, it was only a one and six start that keeping the Twins out of first to this point. The question is, how?
Going back to divisional strength for a moment, Minnesota has played just six games against non-Central teams and won four against the two teams expected to lead the West, Seattle and Oakland. The primary damage done to get them into the win column came against divisional foes, particularly the White Sox in a four game sweep that makes up the majority of the wins in their current hot spell. The questions that remain are how are the Twins doing this and can they keep it up.
Despite not having any big names in the lineup and ranking 19th in OPS as a team, Minnesota currently ranks ninth in runs scored in all of baseball. While lacking in superstars, the Twins do have a well rounded roster that they have been quietly rebuilding the past few years. Of the regulars, four hitters are batting above .275 and five are getting on more than 32% of the time. While none have great power, simply having consistent runners on the bases has allowed six Twins to knock in at least ten runs.
If there is an offensive stand out in this group, it is not the All-Stars Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, or Brian Dozier, but Trevor Plouffe who may be heading into a career year in his age 29 season. Already he has five home runs while batting a career high .269/.351/.446 (his career average is .246, previous high was .258 last year). Largely looked over because of his funny name, Plouffe is a solid player both at the plate and in the field and is a big reason the Twins are relevant.
Speaking of the field, the Ron Gardenhire Twins always prided themselves on good defense and even with a change in management, they are still a solid defensive team. Fangraphs defensive runs saved has them as just slightly better than league average as a team, but removing shortstop Danny Santana’s nine errors and -2.4 UZR does a lot to change that. Outside of Santana and Eduardo Escobar (who has two errors) no Twin has more than one recorded mistake all season. The importance of this can’t be overstated as the 2014 Royals proved great defense can take you a long way.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 4: (L-R) Kurt Suzuki #8, Glen Perkins #15, Joe Mauer #7 and Torii Hunter #48 of the Minnesota Twins celebrate a win of the game against the Oakland Athletics on May 4, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Athletics 8-7. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
On the mound, the Twins are lucky to have one of the best closers in baseball, Glen Perkins, working from the back to create a fairly decent bullpen. Aaron Thompson (2.33 ERA) and Blaine Boyer (3.14 ERA) have also been great from the left and the right respectively. With a solid back end, the Twins have been able to keep any leads they have garnered with Perkins going 10 for 10 in save opportunities with the group as a whole earning 19 holds and blowing just one.
Starting things off, Kyle Gibson (2.97 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (2.63 ERA) have been successful early on, but also extremely lucky. Not many pitchers can get away with walking as many batters as they strike out and these two have combined for 26 walks and 27 strike outs in 63.2 innings. The Twins other two primary starters, Trevor May and Phil Hughes, have much better peripheral numbers (combined 48/9 K/BB), but have not seen the actual results.
Looking at that starting rotation, there are some serious questions of whether the Twins can maintain their success. Ervin Santana was suspended for half the season for PED use before things even got started and there isn’t much depth behind who is currently in Minneapolis (obviously, Trevor May is their fourth starter). Assuming Gibson and Pelfrey come back to Earth (as a whole the Twins are outplaying their xFIP by more than half a run, 3.92 ERA to 4.57 xFIP), the leads for the bullpen to save will be fewer and fewer.
On Thursday, the Twins eked out a win against Oakland due to great infield defense on their side and extremely poor infield defense on the other. Taking advantage, they grabbed a 6-4 run lead by the fifth and never relinquished it behind their solid bullpen. This is an average team. They are right in the middle of the pack according to offense, defense and pitching and even with their recent streak are about a .500 team. An average team takes advantage of struggling teams, like the Mariners, White Sox and Athletics and wins the games they should while they generally lose games against better teams like the Tigers and Royals. As we will continue to say, it is still early, but the only thing the Twins have proven to this point is that they are much closer to being a .500 team than everyone thought, but that they are still just an average team. One thing that is certain, an average Twins team makes the AL Central just that much tougher.
