We’re coming up on the 20% mark of the 2015 MLB season (already?), and while it’s still quite early, fans of some teams are losing hope. The Rangers are eight games under .500 and 9.5 games out of first place. The Brewers are 11 under, 11.5 back of the Cardinals, and just fired their manager. The White Sox and Indians are both six under, but seven back in the AL Central, behind a pair of hot starters in Detroit and Kansas City. But how early is too early to start getting worried about slow starts?
With the addition of the second Wild Card prior to the 2012 season, a hot start isn’t *as* essential to making the playoffs as it had been in prior seasons. If you struggle out of the gate, your season isn’t completely toast just yet. The Royals won the AL pennant in 2014, and were under .500 as late in the season as July 21st. On the other hand, the Brewers got off to a 20-7 start, topped out at 19 games over .500 on June 28th, and finished two games over .500 and out of the playoff race altogether.
But how bad of a start can a team deal with and still make the playoffs? Since the second Wild Card was instituted, 29 of the 30 playoff teams were at least 12-13 through 25 games. The lone exception was the Pittsburgh Pirates of last season, who were 10-15, but still had a run differential of just -1. 28 of the 30 teams also had run differentials of (again, at the worst) -4, with the outliers being the 2012 Athletics (-17) and the 2013 Dodgers (-24). At the risk of sounding like Captain Obvious, playing above .500 baseball with a positive run differential through 25 games gives you a much better chance to contend throughout the year.
How about through 40 games, which teams should be approaching in two weeks? Most teams begin to separate themselves from the pack by then as well. Only three of the 30 playoff teams were under .500 through 40 games (2012 Tigers, 2013 Dodgers, 2014 Pirates), and five of 30 had a negative run differential (2012 Athletics, 2012 Tigers, 2013 Dodgers, 2014 Orioles, 2014 Pirates).
Lets move the goalposts again and look at 60 games. A pattern is starting to emerge – each year, one or two teams will get off to a middling start in the first half before turning it on in the second half. Through 60 games, there were five sub-.500 teams that made the playoffs, and six teams with a negative run differential that made the playoffs.
At the halfway mark of the season, we can generally state with some level of certainty which teams are contenders and which teams are not. Since the implementation of the second Wild Card, only three teams with a sub-.500 record through 81 games made the playoffs – the 2012 Tigers and Athletics (who were both just three games under) and the 2013 Dodgers. Only four teams with a negative run differential at the halfway point of the year made the playoffs, with the 2012 Orioles and the 2014 Pirates joining the 2012 Tigers and 2013 Dodgers.
While some fanbases may feel a bit discouraged by their slow starts, they can’t exactly throw in the towel quite yet. Yeah, the Nationals have gotten off to a poor, 12-14 start, and have been outscored by six runs on the season…but they’re not done yet. Not by a long shot. The same is true for teams like the Marlins, Pirates, Blue Jays, and Athletics – yeah, they’re under .500, but they’ve got positive run differentials this season that could result in future success.
What about hot starts? Well, while every win counts, we can’t exactly break out the Sharpie for the Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, and Tigers just yet. Six teams have gotten off to 17-8 starts over the last three seasons, and only two made the playoffs – the 2012 Rangers (who were bumped in the Wild Card game by the Orioles) and the 2013 Red Sox (who won the World Series). Hell, a hot start doesn’t even guarantee you a .500 record – the 2014 Braves started off 17-8, and finished 79-83!
In short (too late), getting off to a hot start through 25 games is obviously better than getting off to a slow start. But it doesn’t guarantee much of anything, and by the same token, a slow start doesn’t doom teams to baseball purgatory. Baseball is such a crazy game because of how long the season is, and how much things can twist and turn. The 2012 Rangers and 2014 Athletics looked like world beaters in the first half, only to collapse in the second half and get knocked out of the playoffs after just one game. If your team can simply stay close to the pack, you can work your way up the standings throughout the year – just don’t dig too deep of a hole early on. In the last three seasons, only two teams that started five games under .500 or worse through 25 games finished above .500 for the season. Sorry, Phillies and Brewers fans.
