A heavy early divisional schedule can only tell you so much about the strength of that division against the rest of the league, but it does have a way of quickly separating out the teams within the division. While the largely overlooked East appears to be well balanced (all teams are within two games of first), there have been some surprising teams in both the Central and Western Divisions. Probably the two most picked teams to win the World Series, the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians are sitting in fourth and fifth respectively in their divisions while the dark horse favorite Chicago White Sox sit below .500 in third.
The main question for these teams is, “are they legitimately that bad or is it still too early in the season to judge?” For a quick answer to the second part of that question, we are just 19 games into the season for most teams and none of the above teams are more than four games out of the Wild Card or six games out of the division. For the answer to the first part, things get a lot more complicated.
| Hitting | Pitching | |||||||
| AVG | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | BABIP | ERA | xFIP | |
| League Leader | .295 | .328 | 23.6% | 39.6% | 40.6% | .245 | 2.24 | 2.83 |
| Mariners | .237 | .265 | 20.0% | 42.2% | 37.8% | .308 | 4.20 | 3.87 |
| White Sox | .241 | .298 | 20.4% | 48.7% | 29.5% | .303 | 3.98 | 3.75 |
| Indians | .237 | .270 | 21.8% | 46.0% | 33.7% | .345 | 4.19 | 3.18 |
The above chart shows some simple rate stats for the teams in question and whoever leads the league in each stat for comparison. These particular stats were chosen due to their representation of a team’s luck and will be referenced for each team individually below.
Seattle Mariners
Of the three, the one team not to fall to the extra games of division play early on was the Mariners. They have went 4-2 against Oakland and Texas 6-6 overall in the division. The primary cause for their fall below .500 was a three game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 8-1 at home. In addition, two of those losses were walk-offs as was another against the Rangers on April 19th, showing how close the M’s have been in most games.
Considering their luck based stats, the Mariners are seeing some poor luck at the plate, but shouldn’t expect much more from their pitching staff. In fact, the combination of Felix Hernandez (1.61 ERA, 32 K, 5 BB in 28 IP) and J.A. Happ (2.61 ERA, 9 K in 20.2 IP) probably has some room to fall a little bit. While Hisashi Iwakuma (on the DL for at least another week) will likely improve a bit from his 6.61 ERA, Taijuan Walker doesn’t appear long for the rotation with a 10.66 ERA in 12.2 innings and an even more worrisome ten walks, .345 average against and 2.29 WHIP. Walker had a great 2014 season and a near impossible Spring Training (2 ER, 26 K, 5 BB in 27 IP), but hasn’t been able to throw strikes since the regular season has started.
In the bullpen, the Mariners have seen a bit of misfortune as well. Yoervis Medina, Danny Farquhar, Carson Smith and Fernando Rodney have all blown saves and the team bullpen xFIP of 4.30 is the fifth worst in all of baseball. As with any aspect of any player to this point, the Seattle bullpen could still turn things around and have a great season, but they seem to be the weakest part of an otherwise solid team.
Verdict: Given that the Astros are currently in first place in the West, it is definitely too early to count that division as settled. The Mariners have one of the best offenses in the division and half of an incredible starting rotation. Even with the bullpen issues, there is no reason the Mariners won’t compete for at least a Wild Card and most likely, the division as well.
CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 24: Adam Eaton #1 of the Chicago White Sox high fives Jose Abreu #79 after scoring against the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning on April 24, 2015 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Adam Eaton;Jose Abreu
Chicago White Sox
Both the White Sox and Indians have fallen victim to great starts early on by the Royals and Tigers and this is nothing new to either team as Chicago dropped 23 of 38 games against their two rivals while the Indians have went 13-31 against Detroit since 2013.
The Sox got off to a very slow start this year, losing four straight to the Royals and Twins, but have went 8-5 since that point including two straight series wins against Cleveland and Kansas City. As expected, the White Sox are getting excellent pitching from Chris Sale and Jeff Samadzija with not much to look forward to after that and MVP level hitting by Jose Abreu with little to follow.
Looking at the luck stats, the White Sox are pretty even across the board. Both their offensive and pitching BABIP are very near league average and their xFIP corresponds very closely to their ERA. This isn’t really surprising given their dependency on young or unproven players like Micah Johnson, Adam Eaton and Conor Gillaspie and while their should be some improvement expected from the veterans like Alexei Ramirez and Adam LaRoche, there is a reason the White Sox were a dark horse coming into the season and not a favorite.
Verdict: The White Sox will almost certainly finish above .500 this year and will likely make a play at a Wild Card spot, but there are still too many holes on the roster for them to truly compete in the division. Don’t expect them to finish higher than the third place spot they already hold. Do expect them to have finalists for both the Cy Young and MVP.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 18: (L-R) Jason Kipnis #22, Jose Ramirez #11, Michael Bourn #24, David Murphy #7 and Michael Brantley #23 of the Cleveland Indians celebrate a win of the game against the Minnesota Twins on April 18, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Indians defeated the Twins 4-2. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Cleveland Indians
Sitting in last place in a tough, but winnable division, the Indians have to be the most disappointing of the three disappointing teams so far this year. Their starting pitching has been incredible, as can be seen by the 3.18 overall xFIP, but it hasn’t been showing (likely at least partly due to the MLB worst .345 BABIP) with an actual team ERA of 4.19.
The offense has also been unlucky, featuring a poor .270 BABIP despite a decent line drive rate. No Indians hitter with at least 50 at bats is currently batting above .250 with three current starters batting below .200. The Indians will never be a high average or high power team, but they will not bat .237 and slug .366 as a team all year. Particularly due for rebounds are Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourn and Brandon Moss, the last of which already has started to rebound with two home runs and nine RBI in his past three game, raising his average from .162 to .224.
On the mound, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco give the Indians threats to no hit a team four out of every five days and help the team lead the Majors in K/9 (10.62) and the American League with 175 total strike outs. Looking at the talent of these pitchers, the team ERA of 4.19 could be a little confusing, but there may be a reason for that .345 BABIP. Despite making just eight errors so far this year, the Indians have already allowed 3.2 more runs than the average team simply due to lack of range according to fangraphs.com. Last season, the Indians were by far the worst defensive team in baseball and, while greatly improved, they are still largely at fault for the struggles in the pitching staff.
Verdict: The reason Sports Illustrated and other sources picked the Indians to win the World Series was the starting rotation and that quality still stands. As long as the Indians offense can turn things around, there is no reason they can’t quickly overcome their six game deficit, especially since they don’t have to play Detroit again until June.
