The Boston Red Sox surely didn’t acquire pitcher Rick Porcello last December with the intention of him being a one-year rental for them.
Even if general manager Ben Cherington traded a surplus piece in outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who was unlikely to re-sign with Boston, a 26-year-old starter with six MLB seasons on his résumé looked to be a key part of the Red Sox rotation for years to come — if he was signed to a contract extension.
Rather than develop into a lingering, season-long issue, Cherington addressed such concerns on the first day of the regular season, inking Porcello to a four-year, $82.5 million extension. Reaction among the baseball media and Twittersphere was mixed. Some viewed locking up a young arm with plenty of upside remaining as a smart move. Others wondered why Porcello would settle for signing an $80 million extension when he likely would have earned a $100 million contract this coming winter in free agency.
But the loudest inquisitors questioned whether or not Porcello was worth more than $20 million per season, especially to the Red Sox, for whom he had yet to throw a regular-season pitch.
Porcello’s age certainly made him extremely appealing. How many pitchers reach free agency three years before turning 30? He also seemed to get better over the past four years, after suffering a regression in his second season that resulted in a return to the minors. Last season was his best, compiling a 3.43 ERA and throwing 204.2 innings (which included three shutouts).
Rick Porcello is younger than Stephen Strasburg. Still amazes me what Porcello has accomplished at a young stage in his career.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 7, 2015
Yet once again, Porcello allowed more hits than innings pitched, serving up 211. For his career, he’s given up 10 hits per nine innings, which isn’t what most MLB teams prefer to see from a starting pitcher. Some detractors point to Porcello’s career 4.30 ERA as a reason why he may not be worth big money. I would point to the amount of hits he allows.
No, not everyone can be a strikeout stud. Porcello hasn’t been that pitcher, though he arguably was viewed that way as a high schooler going into the 2007 draft. The Tigers turned him into a sinkerballer, a pitcher who had to succeed by keeping the ball down and letting the defense make plays behind him. (Detroit certainly did him no favors with the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos at third base, with Jhonny Peralta at shortstop and Ryan Raburn at second.) Consequently, Porcello has given up a lot of hits during his career, with a strikeout rate averaging nearly six per nine innings.
Personally, I think it would have been very intriguing to see what a starting pitcher at Porcello’s age and with his particular skill set was going to yield on the open market. Would teams shy away because of the lack of strikeout firepower? Might some GMs have believed they could change him into that sort of pitcher because he’s still so young? How much of a value would be placed on durability and being able to shoulder a 200-inning workload? Above all, how much would a non-ace — whose ceiling is probably a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher — be worth?
Well, the money part of those questions has been answered. When his extension kicks in next year, Porcello will be one of 13 pitchers to make $20 million or more per season. Of course, the membership of that group is going to surge with a free agent class that includes Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija and Zack Greinke (who’s sure to opt out of his contract with the Dodgers).
That might hint as to why Porcello didn’t test the market, by the way. Maybe he would’ve gotten lost in the shuffle and found less money available after the top dogs got their payday. Porcello would have stood out because of his age, but perhaps some teams would prefer to pay less for a pitcher on a shorter-term deal.
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 22: General manager Ben Cherington of the Boston Red Sox sits in the stands during 2013 World Series Media Day at Fenway Park on October 22, 2013 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Red Sox host the Cardinals in Game 1 on October 23, 2013. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
The Red Sox are poised to invest in pitching next offseason after paying big money for Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Cherington could pick up Clay Buchholz’s $13 million option for 2016 or buy him out at $245,000. Other than that, the team is on the hook for Wade Miley’s $15.25 million over the next two years (or $26.75 million, if Boston picks up his $12 million option for 2018). Joe Kelly is under club control for another three seasons. And prospects such as Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Barnes will be young, inexpensive additions to the rotation.
Unless Cherington pulls off a trade for Cole Hamels this season or next winter, he’ll likely pursue a No. 1 starter in free agency. (The Red Sox may instead decide to trade for Cueto, then attempt to re-sign him after the season.) Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Edward Mujica becoming free agents will free up further payroll, allowing for a blockbuster offer. Amazingly, Porcello’s deal falls just a tier below that, despite him crossing the $20 million per year threshold next year.
Some Red Sox fans and baseball analysts would point out that Cherington wouldn’t have to pursue a No. 1 starter if the team hadn’t low-balled Jon Lester with a four-year, $70 million offer last spring. But perhaps Porcello’s extension is a sign that the front office and ownership learned its lesson by losing Lester and subsequently seeing how much a No. 1 starter costs in free agency.
For other teams, the mistake would have been paying Porcello like a No. 1 starter and expecting him to be that sort of pitcher. With their $82.5 million extension, the Red Sox are projecting more for the 26-year-old than to be a fourth or fifth starter. But he’s not expected to be Boston’s ace, not unless he shows that capability this season. And if he does, well, then Cherington got himself a bargain.
