The internet typically rewards the quickest reaction. Had I written about the San Diego Padres trading for Craig Kimbrel in the hours immediately following that news breaking, I would have said that the Pads and general manager A.J. Preller made a great deal. Actually, I did say something like that on Twitter.
#Padres finally give up a top prospect in Matt Wisler, but free up that outfielder logjam and bolster that bullpen. What a deal.
— Ian Casselberry (@iancass) April 5, 2015
But after giving the trade some more thought, after sleeping on it, I’m not so sure the Padres made a great deal here. I’m certainly not suggesting they made a bad one. If you grade trades based on which team got the best player, San Diego wins. At least for now.
As Atlanta Braves fans are all too willing to tell you after the trade was announced (catching their breath after getting gut-punched by team president John Hart), Kimbrel has put up a historic performance in his first five seasons. His 1.43 ERA is the lowest among MLB pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched. Since he became the Braves’ full-time closer, Kimbrel’s 185 saves are more than any other ninth-inning reliever has compiled. He’s led the NL in saves during the past two seasons and tied for the league lead in the prior two years.
If you also grade trades based on the other team’s fanbase being extremely upset over the player it lost, the Padres win. At least for now.
But how much did the Padres really need Kimbrel? More than a shortstop or power-hitting first baseman? And is he the type of player that could make the difference in San Diego either winning a wild-card spot or even beating out the Dodgers in the NL West? Did I already answer those questions with the previous paragraph listing Kimbrel’s achievements?
:PEORIA, AZ – MARCH 12: Actor Will Ferrell plays right field for the San Diego Padres as they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a new HBO special from Funny Or Die in partnership with Major League Baseball to support the fight against cancer at Peoria Stadium on March 12, 2015 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
The Padres are certainly a better team heading into Monday’s opener versus the Los Angeles Dodgers than they were 24 hours earlier. But this team had the best bullpen ERA in the NL last season at 2.73. Its .223 opponents batting average and .623 OPS were the second-lowest in the league. Only the World Series champion San Francisco Giants were better.
Yes, some of those numbers were compiled while Huston Street was part of San Diego’s relief corps before he was dealt to the Angels in mid-July. Prior to that, he posted a 1.09 ERA with 34 strikeouts and seven walks in 33 innings, racking up 24 saves. But the rest of that unit is coming back for this season.
That includes Joaquin Benoit, who compiled a 1.49 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 54.1 innings. Dale Thayer notched 62 Ks in 65.1 innings. Nick Vincent struck out 62 batters in 55 innings. Oh, and the Padres added Shawn Kelley, who struck out 67 batters in 51.2 innings.
How stocked is the Padres’ bullpen? Kevin Quackenbush posted a 2.48 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 54.1 innings and he’s beginning the season in Triple-A. There’s no room for him on the major league roster. The same goes Brandon Maurer, who came over from Seattle in exchange for Seth Smith. He threw 55 strikeouts in 69.2 innings.
Adding Kimbrel certainly makes San Diego’s relief corps deeper. And if last year’s postseason taught us anything (other than it’s great to have Madison Bumgarner in your rotation), it’s that a team needs a bullpen that runs four, maybe five arms deep. Obviously, the Padres have to get to the playoffs first, but their chances look even stronger now with a corps of relievers that should be the envy of nearly every MLB club.
However, it’s how much Kimbrel cost the Padres that raises questions as to whether or not this move was worth the price. The closer is due at least $34 million during the next three seasons, and $46 million over four years if the Padres pick up his $13 million option for 2018 (versus a $1 million buyout). Kimbrel will turn 27 in May, so getting three years out of an elite reliever before he turns 30 could work out nicely.
ATLANTA, GA – JULY 04: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Atlanta Braves reacts as he walks to the dugout in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Turner Field on July 4, 2013 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Yet that’s assuming Kimbrel will still maintain his current level of performance, which is kind of a rarity for closers. Sure, he could be the next Mariano Rivera and put together 16 stellar seasons as a closer. But someone who throws as hard as Kimbrel could eventually wear down. At the very least, his velocity could diminish. (Though it should be noted that it’s actually increased, from 95 to 97 mph, in each of the past four seasons.) If that happens, he likely won’t be as effective unless he develops something else to go with a curveball in his arsenal.
Clearly, the Padres think Kimbrel is worth the risk, and the front office could be absolutely right about that. Preller traded his top prospect, whom he’d amazingly held onto through all of the other moves made this offseason, pitcher Matt Wisler. apparently believes so strongly in Kimbrel that he was willing to take on Melvin Upton and the $46.35 million remaining on the final three years of the ridiculous contract former Braves GM Frank Wren signed him to.
Sure, San Diego also got to ditch Carlos Quentin ($8 million) and Cameron Maybin ($17 million or $24 million if his 2017 option is picked up), but the team is still taking on an additional $53.35 million with this deal. That’s a hefty chunk of payroll for a guy who will probably pitch 60-65 innings and a reserve center fielder. (Upton could still end up as a starter if his brother Justin departs via free agency after this year. He could even play there this season, if Wil Myers is a total disaster in center.)
If the Padres go on to win the World Series this year, this trade will be worth it. Preller won’t regret trading top prospect, pitcher Matt Wisler, whom he’d amazingly held onto through all of the other moves made this offseason, nor Jordan Paroubeck, a promising but very raw young talent. The boost in payroll, going up nearly $20 million to $109 million, will be covered in added revenues from a postseason run, rewarding the investment that ownership has made.
But those are the stakes that Preller has now created. If the Padres were in win-now mode after adding Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and James Shields, trading for Kimbrel has slapped a giant “World Series or bust” banner on the side of this ship. Anything less will be viewed as a costly failure. But maybe that’s not a bad thing. Preller and team ownership didn’t assemble this roster just to look pretty. The expectations are bright and clear. Now this team just has to fulfill its promise in an extremely competitive National League.
