Boston fans might be in for a treat soon, as apparently manager Terry Francona* has approached Adrian Gonzalez about perhaps playing some outfield when the team goes to an NL park during interleague play. Gonzalez said he would do it, as it would get David Ortiz’s bat into the line-up. Is it really worthwhile though (even apart from the potential injury risks)?
* Francona’s stated reason of not wanting Ortiz to sit for nine straight games seems odd, given (a) that he’ll almost certainly pinch-hit several times and (b) he’s a DH, so he spends most of his time sitting anyway.
First, there’s the offensive upgrade. Ortiz is batting .323/.402/.604 this year, and even if he’s not really that good of a hitter at this point in his career, he can still swing the bat. I’m assuming Gonzalez would take left-field, so that would put Mike Cameron (or Josh Reddick or Darnell McDonald) on the bench. None of those guys is a particularly good hitter, so there’s quite a bit of improvement – something on the order of 45 runs over a full season.
Are those 45 runs given away defensively though? Overall, the left-field crew is probably at least average with the glove if not a little above. Gonzalez, as a first-baseman (even a good one) with all of 8 career innings out there, would likely be between below average and well below average – maybe -5 to -10 runs given that it’ll be a relatively sudden move. That’s not so bad. Then there’s Ortiz’s glove. Gonzalez, as noted, is a good first-baseman. Big Papi is a DH, and for good reason. He hasn’t gotten into more than a handful of games in the field in a season since 2004. I don’t think it would be a stretch to consider him as being worse defensively than the worst defensive first-baseman in the majors. The drop-off from Gonzalez to Ortiz at first would then be greater than that in left-field, maybe -10 to -15 runs. That’s an overall drop in the field of somewhere between 15 and 25 runs.
So it looks like moving things around really might increase Boston’s chances of winning their interleague games. Doing it for all nine games might net the Red Sox around 1 run overall, which isn’t a ton but isn’t nothing. I’m not sure it’s worth the chances that Gonzalez or Ortiz get hurt, but those aren’t exactly likely events. I have my doubts that Francona will actually implement this plan in full, though I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see it for a game or two.
