In case you haven’t heard, New York Mets starter Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL in his elbow, and season-ending Tommy John surgery seems likely. The injury obviously sucks and is awful, but it isn’t on the level of other crushing injuries suffered this year, like Yu Darvish’s torn UCL or Marcus Stroman’s torn ACL. Why isn’t Wheeler’s injury on that level? Simple – the Mets have the depth to replace him.
Since Wheeler’s torn UCL was announced, he’s gone from an exciting young pitcher to the backbone of the Mets rotation, and his injury will completely destroy their season. Of course, that description of Wheeler isn’t exactly accurate. He was good in 2014, striking out 187 and walking 79 over 185 1/3 innings with a 3.54 ERA. But he was actually third on the Mets staff in innings, third in fWAR, and third in ERA. While he did lead the club in strikeouts, he also lead them in walks. And keep in mind, New York’s best pitcher last year was Jacob deGrom, the NL Rookie of the Year who made just 22 starts. With a full season of starts under his belt, deGrom likely would have passed Wheeler in innings pitched and strikeouts.
Also, Matt Harvey will be back in the saddle for the Mets this year. His return bumps Wheeler down the pecking order even more, behind Harvey, deGrom, and perhaps ridiculous inning eater Bartolo Colon and the quietly solid Jon Niese. At best, Wheeler was the Mets third starter. At worst, he was their fifth starter. Thus, the comparisons to Darvish, Stroman, and even Cliff Lee are just a bit out of whack.
Another reason why Wheeler’s injury isn’t *that* much of a crusher for the Mets is because of the team’s depth. Dillon Gee has been trade bait all season, and was projected to start the year in the bullpen. Wheeler’s injury opens the door for Gee to slide back into the rotation. He wasn’t great in 2014, pitching to a 4.00 ERA over 137 1/3 innings, but he’s just a year removed from a 199 inning, 3.62 ERA campaign. New York could do a lot worse to replace Wheeler in their rotation.
That depth doesn’t only exist at the major league level. Prospect Noah Syndergaard struck out 145 and walked 43 over 133 innings with AAA Las Vegas in 2014, and will more than likely make his way to The Show sometime in 2015. Steven Matz tore through high-A and AA in 2014, and could conceivably coast his way to the majors this year. Rafael Montero was not good in his first start in the majors in 2014 and got smashed to begin his second stint, but finished strong in his final three starts and two relief appearances.
Yeah, Wheeler’s injury sucks for the Mets, their fans, and baseball as a whole. But are the Mets suddenly going to be relegated to hunting for a top ten draft pick without him? Nah. They were arguably contenders before his injury, and after his injury, they’re arguably still contenders. This isn’t an injury that will cost the Mets five or six wins. Hell, it might not even cost them one or two wins when all is said and done. New York is a good enough team, without one player carrying them, that one injury doesn’t destroy their year.
Now, if more players start going down…then we might have a problem.
