On Sunday, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Jake Kaplan that in recent days, one team “stepped up and has shown more particular interest” in pitcher Cole Hamels.
Speculating that the Rangers are that team wouldn’t be much of a stretch. Yu Darvish is out for at least four months with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, and will likely be sidelined for more than a year if he undergoes Tommy John surgery to repair the injury. That leaves a significant hole at the top of a rotation that was already looking thin. So acquiring a new No. 1 starter seems like a logical move for Texas general manager Jon Daniels. Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News is already beating that drum.
For now, the Rangers are putting on a brave face. New manager Jeff Banister is using Darvish’s injury as a rallying point, perhaps capitalizing on a “no one believes in us” mentality that was likely already developing in his team’s clubhouse during spring training.
Jeff Banister: “Through every obstacle, there is opportunity. It can either destroy us or galvanize us and make us stronger.”
— Adam J. Morris (@lonestarball) March 7, 2015
Whether he truly believes this or not, Banister certainly doesn’t want his team thinking that the 2015 season is already over before it’s even begun. And he doesn’t want his first year as a major league manager to fall into a crater before the club leaves Surprise, Ariz. Having to slog through 162 games carrying a load of self-pity would make the season unbearable. So Banister is channeling a little bit of Cliff Poncier (Matt Dillon) from Singles.
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Of course, an ace like Hamels would make the Rangers much stronger than feeding off whatever negative energy is emitted from doubters and critics. But is this a trade Daniels really should make? Reflexively, the answer is an emphatic yes. The Rangers have been chasing a No. 1 starter like Hamels or Zack Greinke for years, though Darvish’s emergence into a Cy Young-caliber starter atop the rotation lessened the urgency to make such a move.
But injuries have just wiped out Daniels’ ambitions to field a homegrown rotation. Derek Holland would have lined up as a strong No. 2 behind Darvish, but lost almost all of last season after tearing cartilage in his left knee. Martin Perez looked like a potential top-three starter last April, going 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA before developing an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Matt Harrison had yet another procedure on his back, this time undergoing spinal fusion surgery.
The Rangers ended up using 15 starting pitchers last season. Only four of them made at least 20 starts. Not one pitched 200 innings.
Hamels would presumably bring some stability and durability to the Texas rotation. He’s made 30 or more starts for seven straight years, throwing 200 or more innings in six of those seasons. (And in the one outlier, he pitched 193.2 innings.) Perhaps there would be some concern that such a workload could take eventually take a toll on a 31-year-old starter. No other team is more aware of how quickly and unexpectedly a pitcher can succumb to injury than the Rangers. And that might be what ultimately prevents Daniels from making this trade happen.
The remaining $96 million on the final four years of Hamels’ contract probably adds to the Rangers’ reluctance to pursue a deal. That total could increase to $110 million if his option for 2019 is picked up, and the left-hander might ask for that as a condition of being traded, though Texas is not among the clubs listed on his no-trade clause. Though Hamels would be the clear No. 1 starter for this year, that’s a truckload of money to pay for a pitcher whose skills are likely going to diminish during the next four seasons.
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However, what the Rangers would have to surrender in a trade for Hamels might be even more of an obstacle than the money involved. Amaro surely could have dealt Hamels already, but is holding the line on giving up his top asset for anything but a package full of elite prospects. The Red Sox have been unwilling to include top prospect Blake Swihart in a deal. The Padres presumably don’t want to give up Matt Wisler, Austin Hedges or Hunter Renfroe. The Dodgers aren’t budging with Corey Seager, Julio Urias or Zach Lee.
Texas has some big-time prospects in Joey Gallo, Jorge Alfaro and Jake Thompson, along with a promising young infielder in Jurickson Profar (though his shoulder won’t have allowed him to play since 2013). Dealing any one of them would be a blow to the Rangers’ future, and the Phillies will want two, if not three, of the organization’s top minor leaguers. Gallo will likely take over for Adrian Beltre at third base or Prince Fielder at first in the next year or two. Alfaro is probably a year away from being the starting catcher. Thompson is a young starter that the team sorely needs.
Would trading any of those players be worth adding Hamels to a team that isn’t likely to contend in 2015? What would be the point? The Rangers lineup should be better if Prince Fielder is healthy and Shin-Soo Choo rebounds from a rough first season in Texas. But there are question marks in left field and at designated hitter. The starting rotation carries some uncertainly in its last two slots, and bullpen depth has to be a concern. Getting Hamels wouldn’t patch all of those cracks.
Even if everything went right for the Rangers, competing with the Mariners, Angels and Athletics at the top of the AL West or in the wild-card race was likely to be difficult. Darvish’s injury has insured that things are already going wrong. A better argument could be made for Daniels blowing this thing up and reinforcing the future instead. Those aren’t the sorts of circumstances under which a team makes a blockbuster deal for a pitcher like Hamels, even if he could help. At this point, he’s just not going to help enough.
