The days of giving young players tryouts to see if they can develop into major leaguers are over in Houston. The likes of Jonathan Villar and Robbie Grossman had their chance, but the Astros could no longer wait. General manager Jeff Luhnow signed veterans like Jed Lowrie, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Colby Rasmus to help his team win more games and reach the next stage of progress. Whether or not A.J. Hinch is the right manager to push the Astros toward contention remains to be seen. He could have one of the most exciting teams in MLB. But at least disagreements between the dugout and front office won’t compromise the long-term plan.
Depth Chart (as of 3/3)
C: Jason Castro
1B: Chris Carter
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Jed Lowrie
3B: Luis Valbuena
LF: Jake Marisnick
CF: Colby Rasmus
RF: George Springer
DH: Evan Gattis
SP: Scott Feldman
SP: Dallas Keuchel
SP: Collin McHugh
SP: Brett Oberholtzer
SP: Dan Straily
CL: Chad Qualls
New Faces: Jed Lowrie, Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Hank Conger, Dan Straily, Joe Thatcher, Roberto Hernandez
Departures: Dexter Fowler, Matt Albers, Jesse Crain, Jose Veras, Carlos Corporan, Mike Foltynewicz, Delino DeShields Jr.
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Impact Rookies: In something of a surprise for such a young team, the Astros might not have any rookies make a meaningful contribution this season. They might have gotten that out of the way last year with George Springer, Jon Singleton, Collin McHugh and Jake Marisnick emerging as major league ballplayers. As mentioned in the introduction, trying to win games in Houston has begun to take precedence over auditioning young players.
However, if one prospect does make his way to the majors this season to help out the cause, it could be pitcher Mark Appel. Players from the 2013 MLB Draft class — notably Kris Bryant and Jon Gray — are on the verge of graduating from the minors, so it’s natural to wonder if the No. 1 overall pick from that year is ready to take that step.
Appel famously struggled last season at advanced Class A Lancaster, compiling a 9.74 ERA in 12 starts, yet was promoted to Double-A in a move that stirred some resentment in the organization. But the right-hander was striking out eight batters per nine innings, while walking an average of two, so there was some promise in his performance. In seven appearances (six starts) with Corpus Christi, Appel thrived, posting a 3.69 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 39 innings and cutting his hit rate in half.
The 23-year-old seems likely to begin the season in Double-A or perhaps Triple-A, but he’s impressed teammates and coaches early in the spring with increased velocity and a more compact delivery. Is it possible that Appel could win a spot in the rotation if he throws well in the Grapefruit League season? With the No. 5 starter job seemingly open, the opportunity appears to be there. Making the jump from Double-A to the majors — or following a short stint at Triple-A — is hardly unheard of for pitchers.
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Position Battles: The most important competition in Astros camp this spring may be for the center field job. Who wins the position may indicate which direction the team pursues for the rest of the season.
Colby Rasmus was signed in mid-January, providing a low-cost veteran looking to rebuild his value before hitting free agency again. Rasmus, 28, has played center field during his whole MLB career, but advanced metrics say he wasn’t very good there last season. That could create an opening for Marisnick, who’s a superior defender but posted a .299 on-base percentage and .669 OPS in 2014. Playing Marisnick would give the Astros a far better defensive outfield, especially if it prevented Gattis from playing left field. But the lineup might be more potent with Marisnick starting the season in Triple-A.
The outfield battle could also affect who plays first base and designated hitter. If Jon Singleton hits well enough to win a job this spring (after batting .168 with a .620 OPS last year), the Astros have to put him somewhere. That likely pushes Gattis or Chris Carter to left field, with the other batting as DH. Manager A.J. Hinch sounds like he prefers to keep Gattis away from the outfield for now, so Singleton (or Marisnick) might end up getting squeezed out in an early roster crunch — especially since both have minor league options — rather than performance.
Injury Concerns: Besides his lack of defensive skills, another reason the Astros likely want to prevent Gattis from playing the outfield is to keep him healthy. Knee and back injuries have limited him to 213 games in two MLB seasons. It’s tantalizing to imagine what Gattis could do if he played more than 110 games in a season, and the Astros will do what they can to make sure that happens.
Jed Lowrie was limited to 136 games last year by finger and foot injuries. Yet that was actually the second-highest total in what’s been a rather injury-plagued career. Prior to his past two seasons with Oakland, Lowrie had never made 400 plate appearances in a season, plagued by wrist, shoulder and leg issues. It’s possible that 140 games is approximately the number of games that the Astros will try to play him, in an effort to keep him fresh. The team could also reduce his time in the field by using Marwin Gonzalez as a late-inning defensive replacement.
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Most Important Player: George Springer
Not picking Jose Altuve, who led MLB with a .341 average, here might seem strange. Chris Carter, who belted 37 home runs — second in the AL — could be another good pick. But for the Astros to advance toward 80 wins and possible contention, they will need Springer to be an impact player in their lineup.
Called up a couple of weeks into the 2014 season, the 25-year-old outfielder struggled initially, looking like he wasn’t ready for the majors. In April, Springer hit .182 with a .480 OPS and 19 strikeouts in 61 plate appearances. But he became comfortable in May and began launching balls out of the park. During one four-game stretch, Springer hit five home runs with 11 RBI. Eventually, that became seven homers in seven games. Perhaps not coincidentally, Houston won six of those seven, one of its best runs of the season.
Unfortunately, Springer’s rookie season was cut short after suffering a left quad strain in mid-July. Following a sting on the disabled list and suffering two setbacks during rehab, the Astros decided to shut their young star down and prevent further injury. Springer finished the year playing in 78 games with a .231 average, .804 OPS, 20 homers and 50 RBI. That home run total was second among Houston everyday players and one short of Lance Berkman’s franchise record.
So what can Springer accomplish by beginning the 2015 season in the majors and presumably staying healthy. A 30-home run season seems entirely possible. There was some talk that the Astros might try Springer in center field, where he played in the minors. But Jake Marisnick or Colby Rasmus might be better at the position defensively, and playing Springer in right field might help keep his legs healthy. The Astros don’t need anything taking away from his potential power and ascension toward stardom.
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X-Factor: Evan Gattis
Houston could have another potential 30-homer slugger in Gattis, acquired from the Braves during the offseason. But he hasn’t yet played more than 108 games in the majors. What sorts of numbers could the 28-year-old put up if he played in 140 or 150 games? Is he capable of that many games, staying healthy and accumulating close to 600 plate appearances?
The priority during the spring will be determining which position Gattis plays. The wise-guy answer would be to say that he’ll play “slugger” for the Astros. Gattis played 135 games at catcher during his two seasons in Atlanta, but wasn’t good defensively and the plan was to move him to the outfield. The presumption upon being traded to Houston was that Gattis would play left field, which seems like the only logical position for him since the Astros already had Carter and Singleton available at first base.
However, the team has three superior defensive outfielders and Gattis has an option that wasn’t available with the Braves: playing designated hitter. That’s likely where he’ll begin the season, possibly alternating with Carter at first base (depending on whether or not Singleton can win a spot on the roster this spring) and maybe seeing some time in left field when the Astros play in NL parks during interleague play. Gattis’ days as a catcher are almost certainly over, which should keep him healthier and enable him to be a middle-of-the-order run producer.
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Key Question: Do the Astros have the starting pitching to compete?
With the Mariners, Angels and Athletics comprising a strong top three in the AL West that the Astros aren’t likely to break up, it’s probably smart that the front office didn’t try to reach for adding an expensive starting pitcher for its rotation. But can Houston really compete in the division or for a wild-card spot without a No. 1 starter?
That’s probably selling Dallas Keuchel short. In his third major league season, the left-hander emerged as the Astros’ best starter, finishing with a 12-9 record and 2.93 ERA while throwing 200 innings. Yet Keuchel also had 10 games in which he allowed three or fewer runs, yet lost or took a no-decision. With a much-improved offense, he should earn more victories. Perhaps he’ll even progress toward 20 wins.
Scott Feldman provides a veteran presence behind Keuchel who could add another 200 innings and Collin McHugh (2.73 ERA last season) gives the Astros what could be a formidable trip at the top of the rotation. Brett Oberholtzer might be the next young Houston starter to break out after making 24 starts last year. But the team did try to add another veteran anchor for the back of the rotation. Will not signing a Ryan Vogelsong or Kyle Kendrick leave a hole in the Astros’ starting five?
Pursuing an ace-level starter might not yet be the right move for the Astros. (Though next year looks like a good time to take that step, considering the crop of talent available in free agency.) But unless a prospect like Appel is soon ready for the majors, adding that kind of pitcher could be the difference in the Astros progressing toward the top of the AL West and contending for a postseason spot.
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Best Case Scenario: Jumping from 70 wins to 80 or above seems like a steep climb for a young team to make in one season. Yet the Astros improved by 19 victories in 2014, so making that sort of leap is possible.
Will it happen this year in the AL West, however? This could shape up as the toughest division in the AL with Seattle, Oakland and the Angels wrestling for the title and consolation prize. The scrum might be a bit crowded for the Astros to squeeze this time around. But the next step for this team is to overtake .500 and show it can be a future contender. If the trio at the top of the division beat each other up, and one or two of them don’t match expectations, an upper-place finish for a team with monstrous upside is attainable.
Worst Case Scenario: Just because the front office is ready to place winning games above development doesn’t mean that the team is at that stage yet. We’ve seen this many times throughout professional sports. A young club appears poised to progress from hopeful to actual contender, but expectations are just a bit too high — or at least a year too early. The presumption is that young stars like Springer and Keuchel will build upon their emergent success, but it’s also entirely possible that those sorts of players regress for a season as part of their growing process. The Astros have enough players that might need a bit more time to stall forward momentum.
It’s also not difficult to imagine that what should be a powerful lineup could compromise that potential with a whole lot of strikeouts, leaving bushels of runners and scoring opportunities on base. And if the top of the starting rotation doesn’t develop as hoped, the lineup’s failure to consistently put the ball in play might result in the Astros losing several games that they should have won.
Realistic Prediction: Houston could improve to 80 wins or even clear the .500 threshold, yet still finish fourth in the AL West. The top tier of the division could be that good, keeping a promising young Astros club down. A last-place finish would be disappointing — especially since the Astros have more young talent than the Rangers, though lack a proven star like Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder or Yu Darvish. But Luhnow’s plan is finally yielding some results after feeding Astros fans some terrible baseball during the past few seasons. This season should be an important step for this team, even if the division standings don’t necessarily reflect that progress.
