The Yankees have finished in third and second place, respectively, during the past two seasons. As you know, that doesn’t cut it in the Bronx. Yet general manager Brian Cashman apparently had little to spend this winter, after throwing big money at four top free agents last year. Will the Yankees suffer for not getting an ace-caliber starter during the offseason? Or is Cashman correctly banking on his aging roster staying healthy for one good run at a division title?
Depth Chart (as of 2/19)
C: Brian McCann
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Stephen Drew
SS: Didi Gregorius
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Carlos Beltran
DH: Garrett Jones
SP: CC Sabathia
SP: Masahiro Tanaka
SP: Michael Pineda
SP: Chris Capuano
SP: Nathan Eovaldi
CL: Dellin Betances
New Faces: Andrew Miller, Didi Gregorius, Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Capuano, Justin Wilson, David Carpenter
Departures: Derek Jeter, David Robertson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Martin Prado, Shane Greene, Ichiro Suzuki, Francisco Cervelli, David Phelps
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 12: Starting pitcher Bryan Mitchell #65 of the New York Yankees works the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles during game two of a doubleheader at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 12, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: As has often been the case with the Yankees in recent years, the organization doesn’t appear to have any young players or top minor leaguers ready to make an impact. But a closer look finds a few guys who could help out in 2015.
Rob Refsnyder had a shot at being the second baseman, but re-signing Stephen Drew took care of that. However, if Drew hits as poorly as he did with the Yankees last year (.150/.219/.271 in 155 plate appearances), it’s certainly possible that Refsnyder, 23, could get a chance. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, Refsnyder hit .318 with an .884 OPS, 38 doubles, 14 home runs, 63 RBI and nine stolen bases last season. He could eventually provide some much needed offense in the middle infield.
But rookies figure to help the Yankees most on the pitching side. Left-hander Jacob Lindgren posted big strikeout numbers (48 Ks in 24.2 innings) while rocketing from rookie ball to Double-A. If he keeps that up, the Yanks could find a place for him in the bullpen. Right-hander Jose Ramirez is another young strikeout reliever that could get a shot, but needs work on his command. Brian Mitchell could help out in the starting rotation at some point. The lefty compiled a 3.67 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) at Triple-A and struck out 94 batters in 103 minor league innings.
Yet the name to watch could be Luis Severino, who Baseball America ranked as the Yankees’ top prospect. He’s probably a year away after finishing last season in Double-A. But a 2.52 ERA with 29 strikeouts and six walks in 25 innings looked very promising. With some question marks at the back of the rotation, it could be very tempting for the Yankees to call Severino up at midseason.
NEW YORK, NY – JULY 11: Austin Romine #53 of the New York Yankees sends the ball to first for the out against the Kansas City Royals on July11,2013 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Position Battles: For the most part, the Yankees’ lineup and rotation are locked up with few positions up for grabs. Yet there are a couple of spots on the fringes of the roster that could draw some competition this spring. With Francisco Cervelli traded to the Pirates, the backup catcher job is open. Austin Romine looks like the front-runner, but his feeble bat gives John Ryan Murphy an opportunity to beat him out. Romine is out of minor league options, however, which may be a consideration early in the year.
Long reliever isn’t a marquee role, but it’s an important one and could be the most closely contested. Esmil Rogers appears to be the favorite as spring training begins, but Adam Warren could overtake him if he’s not needed in a setup role. (New additions David Carpenter and Justin Wilson could make Warren available.) The aforementioned Brian Mitchell could also be in the mix.
The last position player spot on the roster will likely go to a utility infielder. Refsnyder’s bat could earn him the job, but the Yankees might want to get him regular at-bats at Triple-A. Brendan Ryan’s excellent glove at shortstop might provide an edge, but Drew is already on hand to help out at that position when needed. That could help Jose Pirela’s cause, as he can play multiple positions and also swings a good bat.
Injury Concerns: Injuries were a big problem for the Yankees in 2014 and could be a major obstacle again this season. Carlos Beltran struggled with a bone spur in his right elbow, limiting him to 109 games and a .703 OPS. Mark Teixeira played in 123 games, dealing with wrist, knee, hand and oblique issues throughout the year. And Jacoby Ellsbury always seems good for a DL stint during a season.
But injuries took the biggest toll on the starting rotation. CC Sabathia pitched in only eight games due to a right knee that eventually needed surgery. Ivan Nova missed nearly the entire 2014 season after requiring Tommy John surgery in April. Perhaps worst of all was Masahiro Tanaka suffering a partial tear to his ulnar collateral ligament in July. Tanaka avoided reconstructive surgery and tried to work his way back by September, but workload could be a concern as he enters his second full MLB season.
NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 28: Masahiro Tanaka #19 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning in a MLB baseball game at Yankee Stadium on June 28, 2014 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Masahiro Tanaka
I was ready to give Beltran this designation because he’s potentially the Yankees’ most explosive offensive player. But if he does miss time, other sluggers such as Teixeira, Garrett Jones, or even Alex Rodriguez could pick up the slack during a two- to three-week span.
However, if Tanaka isn’t ready to reclaim his role as the Yanks’ best starting pitcher, this rotation doesn’t have an ace. Sabathia just isn’t that guy anymore, though he could be better with a healthy knee. Hiroki Kuroda went back to Japan. Michael Pineda’s durability is still in question. Tanaka, 25, showed he could be dominant against MLB competition, posting a 2.77 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 136.1 innings. He probably isn’t going to make 32 starts and throw 200 innings this year, but being able to perform as the No. 1 starter could be the difference between the Yankees contending for a playoff spot and finishing toward the bottom of the AL East.
X-Factor: Alex Rodriguez
C’mon — you knew we were getting to A-Rod eventually. He was already going to receive a ridiculous amount of attention, returning from a season-long PED suspension to try and win a job with a team that no longer wants him, yet has to pay him $61 million over the next three years. Yet Rodriguez has already guaranteed he’ll be a distraction and headache for management and teammates by issuing an apology through a statement, rather than facing the media.
But here’s the thing about A-Rod: The Yankees actually need his bat in the lineup. They have third base covered by re-signing Chase Headley, who provides an elite glove at the position. However, if you look at the batting order, it’s heavy with left-handed bats. Beltran and Teixeira are switch-hitters, but didn’t hit well from the right side. The Yankees need a right-handed run producer, and A-Rod could be that guy if he’s healthy and his hips allow him to generate his former power. Can he hit 15 to 20 home runs? If so, Rodriguez could provide balance to the middle of the lineup or some pop to the lower third of the batting order.
CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 30: Didi Gregorius #1 of the Arizona Diamondbacks fields a groundball during the game aganst the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 30, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Key Question: Can Didi Gregorius be the future at shortstop?
As Derek Jeter played out his final season in 2014, the Yankees still had to deal with the question of who would replace him. Drew looked like the possible heir apparent once he was acquired from the Red Sox last July. But at 31 years old with severely diminished hitting skills, was he really a long-term solution at shortstop?
Enter Gregorius, whom the Yankees picked up in a three-team deal with the D-Backs and Tigers. This was exactly the sort of player Cashman needed to add to his roster, young with upside. Gregorius also carries questions about his ability to hit. Had he not struggled at the plate, he likely would have been Arizona’s starting shortstop instead of losing his job to Chris Owings. But Gregorius made himself expendable, for which the Yankees are the beneficiary.
At 25, he has plenty of opportunity to improve and grow. In the short-term, Drew or Ryan can help out at shortstop if needed. But Gregorius has to seize the position for the Yankees to succeed in the future. Otherwise, Cashman will spend a lot of time and resources trying to find another shortstop.
NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 08: Carlos Beltran #36 of the New York Yankees hits a grandslam in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Yankee Stadium on August 8, 2014 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: Ideally, Beltran and Teixeira would each play in 140 games and provide 25 to 30 home runs in the middle of the lineup. Gregorius hits .260 and plays good defense at shortstop. Sabathia makes 30-plus starts and throws 200 innings, while Tanaka resumes baffling the opposition. Dellin Betances steps in nicely as the closer, while Andrew Miller proves that Cashman was smart to pay another setup man big money. Oh, and A-Rod actually makes a meaningful contribution at the plate, rather than off the field.
The Yankees have the look of a team that needs just about everything to go right — or most everything to go wrong for the competition in the AL East. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are considerably improved, and the Orioles should be competitive even after sustaining some significant losses. Yet if everyone stays relatively healthy and productive, this team could crack 90 wins and get to the postseason.
Worst Case Scenario: The Yankees go through a rerun of 2014 with multiple injuries to key hitters and starting pitchers, preventing anyone from being the impact bat or dominant starter that this team needs to contend. Beltran looks every bit the 38-year-old he’s about to be and his body continues to break down, while Teixeira and Sabathia can’t stay in the lineup. And worst of all, Tanaka’s elbow becomes problematic again, depriving the rotation of an ace-level starter. Toronto and Boston playing very well and setting the pace in the division wouldn’t help either. The Yankees need to keep up.
Realistic Prediction: Last season, the Yankees won 84 games, finishing in second place and 12 games behind the Orioles. Baltimore may have fallen back to the pack with a lackluster offseason, but the Blue Jays and Red Sox made key additions that should boost them up the standings. That could make it difficult for the Yanks to match last year’s win total, and could push them as far down as fourth place in the AL East. Yet this is still a very talented roster, especially if it stays healthy, with a strong lineup and deep bullpen. A run at 88 to 90 wins and at least a wild-card bid seems entirely possible.
