With almost half a season in the books, the Cubs are toiling just to stay out of the bottom of the NL Central’s cellar. Meanwhile, chairman Tom Ricketts is starting to feel heat from the media and fans who want the ax to drop on whoever is to blame for the miserable season-to-date. While Ricketts has, “100 percent confidence in Jim [Hendry]” and feels that, “Mike [Quade]’s done a great job.” (Source: ESPN.com), one has to wonder whether his vote of confidence carries any weight at all.
Are GM Jim Hendry and field manager Mike Quade’s jobs really secure?
The Cubs have faced a number of problems so far in 2011, as most bottom feeding teams do. But these problems are a product of decisions made well before the season started. In terms of offense, the Cubs have a handful of batters hitting around .290 or better, but getting on base via the walk has been an issue. In fact, the Cubs have the league’s lowest team walk rate (6.5 percent). Other than Kosuke Fukudome (15 percent walk rate), Carlos Pena (17.4 percent walk rate) and Geovany Soto (10.3 percent walk rate), no other Cubs batter with at least 100 plate appearances has a walk rate of eight-percent or better. The average walk rate in baseball is normally around 8.5 percent. The majority of the Cubs’ regulars aren’t even close to the 8.5-percent average walk rate. Alfonso Soriano, Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Blake DeWitt, Reed Johnson and Marlon Byrd — before his injury — all have walk rates under four percent. If that trend continues and some of the Cubs’ high AVG hitters come down to earth — Johnson .368 AVG/.406 BABIP and Baker .347 AVG/.416 BABIP –, the problem will only get worse. Both Soriano and Byrd have a track record of low walk rates and both were brought in on long-term contracts as was Aramis Ramirez (extension signed 11/06), who has hit only five home runs this season. Those three signings were all Jim Hendry’s call.
However, the offense hasn’t been the biggest problem. It’s been a pitching staff with the highest ERA in the National League. Interestingly, if we look at each Cubs starter that has six or more starts, we find that almost each one has a particularly high BABIP against.
Doug Davis, .368 BABIP
Matt Garza, .349 BABIP
Casey Coleman, .346 BABIP
Ryan Dempster, .320 BABIP
Carlos Zambrano, .289 BABIP – The one exception of the group.
While each pitcher has had their issues other than BABIP — 23-percent line drive rate for Garza, 13 home runs allowed by Dempster, 1.9 K/BB rate for Zambrano — it seems like the defense might be letting the pitching staff down a bit. As it turns out, the Cubs have committed the most errors in baseball and have the second worst team UZR in baseball. One of the most important defensive positions in baseball, shortstop, is manned by Starlin Castro who has committed 15 errors, the most by any shortstop in baseball. The defense also features aging veterans in Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, who have certainly lost a step. In right field, Kosuke Fukudome holds a team-worst -8.5 UZR, which also happens to be the worst UZR by a right-fielder in baseball. In other words, the defense isn’t doing the pitching staff many favors.
Both Garza and Dempster have seen better results since April and both should be solid starters going forward. However, with the unpredictable Zambrano and no real dependable fourth or fifth starter, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope for a drastic improvement in the rotation going forward.
Injuries have certainly been a part of the Cubs season. However, injuries play a role in every team’s season; it’s the replacement players that make the difference. For the Cubs, the replacements on the offensive side have actually been playing well, if not a bit over their head.
When you look at this team from every perspective, it’s hard to blame Mike Quade for the team’s poor performance. He made the right call on batting Fukudome leadoff and he made the right call handing the starting second-baseman job to Darwin Barney, but if pitching and defense win championships, then the Cubs were handicapped from the start. If the ax needs to fall on someone, it’s hard not to push Jim Hendry to the front of the line. While some of his moves were good — the Carlos Pena signing and the trade for Matt Garza –, some of his long-term signings are definitely starting to reach their decline. Alfonso Soriano has lost a lot of his mobility and is mostly just a low on-base power hitter. Carlos Zambrano is a $17.875M time bomb, Kosuke Fukudome is an on-base machine, but with little power, poor defense and declining speed and John Garbow is a below replacement level reliever making almost $5M this season.
The Cubs probably aren’t as bad as their current record shows, but they’re probably not good enough to make a huge comeback this season. Given the contracts that are coming off the books after this season — Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez (mutual option), Pena and Garbow — there will be plenty of money to spend toward 2012, so maybe next year will be the year — I think we’ve heard that before. The question is: Who will be making those decisions?
Tom Ricketts may say that he has full confidence in Jim Hendry, but if the Cubs don’t turn things around it will be their second straight losing season. Do they start fresh with a new GM and new manager? Time will answer that question, but the hollow “vote of confidence” speech isn’t fooling anyone.
