The state of second base in baseball right now is interesting. You’ve got some fantastic second basemen (Robinson Cano), some budding young second basemen (Jose Altuve), and some second basemen that are clearly talented, but still have some questions surrounding them (Neil Walker, Jason Kipnis). And that doesn’t even begin to deal with the tier of second baseman that are on the decline, but are still quite good.
1. Robinson Cano. Who in the hell else did you expect here? Cano turned 32 in October and the downslide could happen any year, but his first year as a Mariner was lovely. He matched his batting average and OBP from 2013 nearly to a tee (.314 average, .382 OBP in 2014). He cut his strikeout rate down to 10.2%, the second-lowest market of his career. His walk rate stayed above 9.0%. However, Cano’s defense at second did take a small step back, and his power dramatically fell off…oddly enough, not because of Safeco Field (.161 home ISO, just .120 on the road). The Mariners still have nine years left with Cano, and a lot can go wrong in that time period. But for now, so far, so good.
2. Ian Kinsler. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Kinsler has settled into a role as an average hitter whose value rises and falls along with his defensive metrics. He hasn’t hit 20 homers since 2011. He hasn’t stolen 20 bases since 2012. He’s always been a low average, low strikeout sort of guy, and those parts about his game held strong in 2014. However, Kinsler’s walk rate also fell off a cliff in 2014 to a ghastly 4.0%, helping him to a miserable .307 OBP. However, his defensive numbers were once again strong, and he was one of two second basemen (along with honorable mention Brian Dozier) to hit 15 homers and steal 15 bases. Kinsler is in his post-peak years, but he’s still pretty damn good.
3. Chase Utley. Putting Utley, the 36-year old cornerstone of the Phillies, this high might be a bit controversial. But even when Utley isn’t healthy and is a shell of his former self, he’s still consistently good. He’s hit double digit homers in every seasons of his career dating back to 2004. He’s stolen double digit bases in every year of his career but one since 2004. He’s always been a wizard defensively at second base, and has posted positive DRS and UZR numbers in every season in the majors since 2004, with the exception of his 2013 DRS. In 2014, Utley put together the worst offensive season of his career…yet he still managed to play in 155 games (his most since 2009), steal ten bases, and hit 11 homers. What more can you ask for from a guy that’s been around for as long as him?
OAKLAND, CA – JUNE 19: Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after hitting a two run home run against the Oakland Athletics during the sixth inning at O.co Coliseum on June 19, 2014 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
4. Dustin Pedroia. Maybe this is too low for Pedroia. I’d listen to that argument. But Pedroia’s 2014 simply wasn’t all that good. He stole six bases and hit seven homers – both career lows. He hit .278/.337/.376 – all of which were career lows. He struck out at a career-worst 12.3% clip. Maybe we can look back at his 2014 as a lost season because of the thumb surgery Pedroia had in November of 2013. But if he continues to struggle in 2015, we could be looking back at this season as the beginning of the end for one of the key cogs in Boston’s latest two World Championships.
5. Jose Altuve. During his first three seasons in the majors, in which Altuve was just 21-23 years old, he showed flashes of brilliants, but couldn’t put it all together. In 2014, everything fell into place for Houston’s diminutive second baseman. Altuve’s strikeout rate fell to 7.5%. He notched a monstrous 225 hits and led baseball with a .341 batting average. His speed and gap power allowed him to double 47 times. That speed also allowed Altuve to steal 56 bases at an 86% clip. To illustrate his improvement in that category, consider that over his first three years, Altuve stole 75 bases at a 73% clip. So, why isn’t Altuve higher? Well, I need to see it happen for another year. In 2015, can he continue along as a .300+ average hitter? Can he keep stealing bases at a rate about the break-even mark? If so, you’re looking at the future of the second base position…and he’s only going to be 25 in May.
6. Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is a very similar player to Utley, just with more versatility. He can play second! He can play short! He can play the outfield! Zobrist will be 34 in May, and will play his first year in the majors with a club other than the Rays, as he’ll spend 2015 in Oakland. Zobrist hasn’t failed to hit ten homers and steal ten bases in a year since a 62 game stint in the majors in 2008. There’s very little offensive upside here – you generally know what you’re getting from him. He’s never struck out more than 20.0% of the time, and never failed to walk less than 10.0% of the time. He’s a doubles machine. He’s a great defender. I’m just concerned about the change of venue for Zobrist, but he was a damn solid player for years in Tampa Bay, and I’d expect nothing less of him in Oakland.
7. Neil Walker. Walker is a flawed player coming off the best year of his career. Thus, ranking him as a bit difficult. He launched 23 homers, which is quite good. He matched his career-low strikeout rate of 15.4%, which is good. But he’s not a good defender, he doesn’t hit for a high average, he’s not a high on-base guy, and he’s already 29. So..what do we have here? A middle of the road second baseman that isn’t a cornerstone. You can do a lot worse than a player like Walker, but you really just know what you’re getting at this point, and shouldn’t expect much more.
BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 29: Howie Kendrick #47 of the Los Angeles Angels celebrates with teammates after scoring in the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 29, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
8. Howie Kendrick. Speaking of knowing what you’re getting…Howie Kendrick, ladies and gentlemen. Kendrick has this rep of being a .300 hitter, yet he hasn’t hit .300 since 2008. He’s hit more than 13 homers just once in his career, and has stolen exactly 14 bases (his career-high) in four of the last five seasons. He’s never been much of a walker, but his 7.1% clip in 2014 was a career-high. He’ll be a better player for the Dodgers than Dee Gordon in 2015, that’s for sure, but they’re not getting a superstar. Kendrick is a solid, consistent performer, and the Dodgers can pencil him in for two-three wins this season and be confident he’ll achieve that value.
9. Jason Kipnis. Kipnis was a sexy breakout pick in 2014, and he failed to live up to hose lofty expectations. His power completely disappeared, as Kipnis hit just six homers and posted a .090 ISO. He did retain his abilities on the basepaths, stealing 22 bases while getting caught just three times, and had fine enough strikeout and walk rates. I’m curious as to whether or not an oblique strain at the end of April doomed Kipnis’s season, because his April was fine up until that point. Once he returned from the injury, Kipnis was a disaster. The Indians are locked in to him for the next five seasons, and I bet they’re hoping the oblique strain was the main reason for his 2014 struggles.
10. Daniel Murphy. We close with the mercurial Mets second baseman, who the team stubbornly refuses to trade despite his rather limited value. Murphy reminds me of a poor man’s Howie Kendrick. He only has 48 homers in 773 career games. He’s never walked at even a 7.0% rate. The only season where he struck out more than 14% of the time was in his 49 game stint in 2008. His average hasn’t dipped below .286 over the last four seasons. He’s absolutely not a great defender. Yet, he has fewer questions than the three honorable mentions listed below, meaning that he sneaks onto the list by a hair.
Honorable mentions: Brian Dozier, Dee Gordon, Brandon Phillips
