Four players were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday, representing the largest class going into Cooperstown since 1955. Over the past two years, seven players have received the necessary 75 percent of the vote from the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), making up for the embarrassment of no players being elected in 2013.
Looking good gentlemen, looking very good. #HOF2015 pic.twitter.com/XMKNkZxLVw
— MLB (@MLB) January 7, 2015
Has the annual Hall of Fame election again become a celebration of the game? Or will future elections continue to be a yearly bruising brawl of words between old-school voters upholding whatever arbitrary principles they deem necessary and newer, more progressive balloters who see the need for adjustments in the voting process and how the most recent era under consideration should be viewed?
The 2016 ballot doesn’t figure to be as top-heavy as the past two were. Two players stand out as possibilities for first-year election. Ken Griffey Jr. — with 630 home runs, 2,781 hits, a 1997 AL MVP award and 13 All-Star appearances — appears to be a lock. For at least an eight-year span during his 22 MLB seasons, he was considered one of — if not the — best player in baseball. Trevor Hoffman also has a strong chance with 601 saves (second on the all-time list), a 2.87 ERA and strikeout rate of 9.4 Ks per nine innings.
Could Billy Wagner also get some support? His 422 saves rank fifth in MLB history, to go with a 2.31 ERA and a rate of 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Season save totals are surely overblown, but could it be held against Wagner that he only had two seasons of 40 or more saves? He did have another three with at least 38 saves.
But compare that to Hoffman, who had nine seasons with 40 or more saves. Mariano Rivera, who should get at least 98 percent of the vote for the 2019 election, also had nine 40-save seasons and twice surpassed 50 in a season. Lee Smith, who drew only 30 percent for his 13th year on the ballot, notched 40 or more saves four times in his career.
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Mike Piazza should also finally break through the 75 percent threshold next year after earning 69.9 percent of the vote on 2015 ballots. (Exit polling among those who revealed their ballots indicated Piazza’s vote total would be very close.) While it’s a damn shame that the best hitting catcher of all time has already been on the ballot for three years due to unfounded concerns of PED use, outrage over this development is tempered by the likelihood that Piazza wil be elected in 2016.
For those voters who apparently need to be reminded, Piazza hit 396 home runs as a catcher (427 overall) with a .545 slugging percentage and .922 OPS — each total ranking first at the position.
A seemingly thinner ballot could be a good thing, allowing an opportunity for those who have received 55 percent of the vote, such as Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines, to get a push. (That’s especially important for Raines, who now has only two years of eligibility remaining on the ballot after the rules were changed last year.)
Something else worth keeping an eye on will be the status of starting pitchers on the ballot. With three starters elected this year, accounting for five in the past two elections, there has been some lamenting that it will be a long time before we see a starting pitcher get 75 percent of the vote again.
For one thing, the era now being represented by first-timers on the ballot played in the so-called “steroid era,” when offense thrived. As mentioned above, an increasing number of relievers will be eligible. And few starting pitchers of note (with no disrespect intended toward the likes of Jeff Weaver, Chan Ho Park and Russ Ortiz) will be added to the ballot.
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Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina probably represent the next best chances for starting pitchers to be elected to Cooperstown. But both still have a considerable climb among voters. Schilling drew a 39.2 percent in 2015 balloting, while Mussina received 24.6 percent of the vote. Neither player is likely to make a jump toward 75 percent for at least the next two elections, if not more.
Schilling (216) and Mussina (270) both notched more wins than the newly elected John Smoltz (213), though each has a higher career ERA. Schilling also has more strikeouts (3116 to 3084) than Smoltz in fewer career innings (3,261 to 3,473). But Smoltz also pitched three seasons as an elite closer, racking up 144 saves (and 154 overall), perhaps the best ever at making the transition from starting pitcher to ninth-inning reliever (and then back again to starter).
The other starting pitcher that stands out on the ballot is Roger Clemens, but BBWAA voters seem to have drawn the line on him and Barry Bonds, penalizing them for their association with PED use. Clemens’ voting percentage barely budged from 2014 to 2015, nudging up slightly from 35.4 percent to 37.5 percent. (Bonds went from 34.7 percent to 36.8 percent.)
That’s not the kind of progress that typically puts a player on the track to election. And with just seven more years on the ballot with the rule changes, Clemens and Bonds have far less time to earn a change of hearts and minds among voters.
However, the good times and feelings figure to continue at this time next year with at least two, if not three players winning 75 percent of the vote and being elected to Cooperstown. Who doesn’t love Ken Griffey Jr.? It’s going to be so much fun seeing him win his rightful place in the Hall of Fame. Griffey at his best, playing the game with fun and seemingly limitless skill, was baseball at its best.
Yet if Piazza doesn’t get a five percent boost among balloteers, there figures to be outrage — much louder than what we heard this year, considering how close he now is. Aside from picking on individual voters with ridiculous, short-sighted ballots, do we really want to go through that next year as baseball fans and historians? Again, the Hall of Fame election is supposed to be a celebration of the game. Here’s hoping it stays that way.
