Nelson Cruz was one of the best bargains of the 2014 MLB season, signing a one-year, $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles in late February. Coming off a suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, teams questioned the role PEDs played in his performance. Additionally, Cruz’s qualifying offer status meant a club had to give up its first-round draft pick to sign him, which was a deal-breaker for most clubs.
While that was surely disappointing, the 34-year-old seized the opportunity to improve his market value with a great season and test free agency again. Cruz paid off big-time for Baltimore, slugging a MLB-leading 40 home runs with 108 RBI, in addition to 32 doubles and an .853 OPS. During the postseason, he batted .357 with a 1.007 OPS (which included a .500 average, 1.500 OPS. two homers and five RBI in the ALDS versus the Tigers.)
In turn, the outfielder and designated hitter is now getting paid for those efforts. Cruz agreed to a four-year contract with the Seattle Mariners on Monday worth $57 million. Reports on the deal initially came out of the Dominican Republic and posted to Twitter by ESPNDeportes’ Enrique Rojas.
Reporta el periódico dominicano @ElCaribeRD que Nelson Cruz y #Mariners se pusieron de acuerdo por 4 años y $57 millones
— Enrique Rojas/ESPN (@Enrique_Rojas1) December 1, 2014
At first glance, a four-year deal for a 34-year-old player likely to be a designated hitter in Seattle seems excessive. An average annual salary of $14.25 million isn’t outrageous (Victor Martinez is earning $17 million per year in his new deal with the Tigers), but what sort of production will Cruz provide in the third and fourth years of this contract?
However, as we’re seeing in free agency this year (and in recent years), that extra year is usually the difference between signing your guy and watching him go elsewhere. That extra year (which is often backloaded) is something of a tax.
Obviously, MLB teams are willing to pay that expense for top hitters, given the decrease in offense throughout the league. Right-handed power is at even more of a premium, and Cruz was the best of those bats available on the open market.
The Mariners were in dire need of a right-handed home run threat to bat behind Robinson Cano and provide some left-right balance in the middle of that lineup. Catcher Mike Zunino hit 22 homers last season for Seattle, but batted only .199 with a .658 OPS. Third baseman Kyle Seager, a left-handed batter and owner of a new contract extension, led the M’s with 25 home runs and 96 RBI.
Expecting Cruz to repeat his 40-homer performance is probably asking a bit much. But that was likely to be true regardless of whichever team he signed with next.
Camden Yards has a reputation as a home-run friendly bandbox, while Safeco Field is perceived as a vast pitchers’ paradise. According to ESPN.com’s park factors, the Mariners’ home ballpark was the toughest place to score runs last season, though Baltimore ranked in the bottom third of MLB stadiums. What’s interesting is that Safeco Field actually yielded more home runs in 2014 than Camden Yards. (Cruz was surely a contributing factor there.)
Conventional thinking is that Cruz will hit fewer home runs playing in Seattle. I know I’ve been guilty of that assumption as well. Yet Cruz actually hit 25 homers on the road, slugging .584, compared to 15 in Baltimore with a .463 slugging percentage. His power wasn’t just a product of hitting in Camden Yards.
But will Safeco Field dampen Cruz’s home run totals at all? For his career, he has nine homers in 204 plate appearances in Seattle, batting .234 with a .749 OPS. He also has 11 doubles, so Cruz could still hit for extra bases even if he notches fewer home runs.
For further reference, here is an overlay of Safeco Field’s dimensions compared to Camden Yards, via HitTrackerOnline:
The two parks actually look rather similar, though Safeco Field is deeper in the left-field power alley and down the right-field line. Seattle’s naturally damp air and rainy weather play a role in how far the ball travels there.
How do the Orioles replace Cruz? The market for right-handed hitters is thinning out with Cruz, Billy Butler, Michael Cuddyer and Hanley Ramirez signing elsewhere. Torii Hunter is reportedly showing interest in signing with Baltimore. (Another of the teams he was looking at was the Mariners, but Cruz probably fills whatever spot Hunter would have taken.) However, the far more appealing option would be trading for Matt Kemp.
According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Orioles have discussed such a deal with the Dodgers. Kemp would probably be the best chance Baltimore has in replacing Cruz’s power. He has a 39-homer season on his resumé (in 2011), hitting in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. If there were any lingering concerns about his ability to be an impact hitter, Kemp likely silenced such questions with a second half during which he hit .309 with a .971 OPS, 17 homers and 54 RBI.
One final note about Cruz and the Mariners: Seattle had a chance to sign Cruz before last season at a much cheaper price. It was considered a done deal throughout the industry. Not only would general manager Jack Zduriencik have been able to get Cruz for less than what the Orioles paid, at $7.5 million, but the agreement would have included a $9 million club option for 2015. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported in October that team ownership ended up nixing the deal, citing the PED concerns surrounding him.
That decision cost the Mariners $5.25 million for next season and $40.5 million in the three years thereafter. Sometimes, the best deals are the ones you should have made.
