The starting pitching market this year is enough to make a team with a lot of money salivate. Three big names head the class, and the middle ground is loaded with intriguing options. If you’re a team that has no issues spending money, you can put together a damn good rotation of free agents this winter.
1. Max Scherzer. Three years ago, could you imagine that Max Scherzer would be in line for a contract worth a minimum of $150 million? Didn’t think so. Scherzer first really showed signs of breaking out in 2012, then took a monstrous step forward in 2013 while winning the AL Cy Young award, and duplicated those results in 2014. Scherzer has avoided major injuries throughout his career, and has made 30 starts in six straight seasons. He’s also evolved as a pitcher to the point where he’s the unquestioned top player in the free agent market this winter.
2. Jon Lester. Lester has one big advantage compared to Scherzer – he’s a left-hander. He’s even more durable than Scherzer making 30 starts in seven straight seasons and crossing the 200 inning mark in six of those years. In fact, the only year of Lester’s carer that was truly disappointing was his 4.82 2012, but he rebounded quite nicely in 2013 and put together arguably the best season of his career in 2014. He’s not going to surpass Clayton Kershaw’s $215 million, but Cole Hamels and his $144 million is well within reach.
3. James Shields. Shields has been overrated throughout his career, but he’s still quite a good, durable pitcher. The only season in his major league career in which he failed to start 30 games or pitch 200 innings was 2006, when he started the year in AAA for ten starts. He’s really been the model of consistency, aside from a 2010 meltdown spurred on by a spike in his home run rate. I don’t think it’s fair to put him in the same class as Scherzer and Lester, but he’ll clear the $100 million mark easily.
4. Brandon McCarthy. Why does McCarthy get the nod over Ervin Santana and Francisco Liriano? Three words: no qualifying offer. Signing McCarthy won’t cost his new team a draft pick, which Santana and Liriano will. That being said, there are plenty of red flags with McCarthy, from his injury history to his age, and I’d be wary about giving him more than a three or four year deal. However, he’ll still end up doubling (at least) his previous contract, a two-year, $15.5 million pact signed with the Diamondbacks two winters ago.
5. Ervin Santana. Santana has some rather unfair negative points tacked onto his docket, namely his injury history and inconsistency. But the fact of the matter is that Santana has made 30 starts in five straight years, and has had an ERA under 4.00 in four of them, with the lone outlier being a 2012 season that saw Santana allow an incomprehensible 39 homers in 178 innings. Getting out of Anaheim seemed to help him, as Santana thrived in both Kansas City and Atlanta over the last two years. This is a guy who is one of the better pitchers in baseball, and is worthy of a multi-year contract from his new team.
6. Francisco Liriano. Liriano is the definition of inconsistent, despite his two great years in Pittsburgh. He’s already got a Tommy John surgery on his resume. He’s pitched as many as 170 innings in a season just once in his career. He has issues with his control at times. The Pirates dealt with all of that, and he was a godsend for them in the last two seasons. A return to Pittsburgh, where he was comfortable and thrived in their rotation, would make the most sense. I wouldn’t give up a draft pick to sign Liriano at this point, let alone give up a draft pick and give Liriano a multi-year deal.
7. Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda essentially has three options for 2015, which is why he’s this low on the list despite his results – retirement, pitching in Japan, or staying with the Yankees. I doubt that a team like the Red Sox or Cubs would be able to back up the Brinks truck and get Kuroda to sign a multi-year deal to leave the Big Apple. And really, that’s kind of a shame – he’s a damn good pitcher, even at 39, and could help out a lot of clubs this winter.
8. A.J. Burnett. Burnett struggled for the Phillies in 2014 – there’s no question about it. However, he still threw 213 2/3 innings and struck out 190. He’s shown that he can thrive when everything is going his way (Miami, Toronto, Pittsburgh), but he can also walk the whole damn league and struggle if things start going pear-shaped. A smaller market club that is known for rehabilitating erratic pitchers would be a great fit for him.
9. Jason Hammel. Hammel looked like the bargain of the winter after his first half with the Cubs. Then he got dealt (along with Jeff Samardzija) to the A’s, and struggled a bit, though his underlying peripherals looked fine, aside from a monstrous home run rate. But Hammel proved he could stay healthy this past year after missing time with the Orioles in both 2012 and 2013, and I think that will help his market a lot this winter. Teams shouldn’t be all that concerned about giving him a multi-year deal.
10. Aaron Harang. I think Harang could end up as guy that gets paid more than he’s actually worth after his best season since 2007. He’s still a guy that can eat innings for a team, and his 3.57 ERA may not be too much of a mirage given his solid marks in 2011 and 2012. After getting passed around during 2013 and the offseason before 2014, he’s facing a more favorable market than he did a year ago.
