After watching postseason baseball for a month, it’s easy to believe that what wins in the playoffs needs to be applied to the following regular season. So it could be understandable if you began to feel like starting pitching doesn’t matter as much as we’ve always been led to believe based on what happened during the 2014 postseason.
The Dodgers have the best starter on the planet in Clayton Kershaw, yet he lost twice in the NLCS to the Cardinals, finishing with a 7.82 ERA. The Tigers boasted a rotation with three former AL Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price, yet were swept in three games by the Orioles. The Giants were pushed to seven games in the World Series because neither Jake Peavy nor Jake Peavy could pitch past the second inning in their starts.
Of course, San Francisco also had Madison Bumgarner, who took this possible narrative and blew it to the ground like one of his snot-rockets. The left-hander showed how much a dominant starting pitcher truly matters, how much he can tilt the balance of a series, how much of a difference he can make in winning a championship. A 4-1 record and 1.03 ERA in seven appearances — including an 0.43 ERA in 21 World Series innings — is fast becoming the stuff of legend.
However, it has to be noted that Bumgarner filled a crucial role for the Giants not just as a starter, but also as a reliever. Though he shouldered a starter’s workload in Game 7, pitching five innings and throwing 68 pitches, San Francisco’s ace clinched his team’s third championship in five years by providing what the other postseason contenders didn’t have this year: excellent middle relief.
Yes, Bumgarner also closed out the Giants’ World Series-clinching win, and was credited with a save in the official boxscore because of it. We’ll never know if the Giants would have won Game 7 with Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla pitching the final two innings instead of Bumgarner. But San Francisco may never have even gotten to that point if not for their ace starter pitching in relief (along with 2.1 innings of scoreless help from Jeremy Affeldt).
Clubs like the Tigers, Dodgers and Cardinals couldn’t follow through on their postseason ambitions largely because their managers had no answers for that gap between the starting pitcher and late-inning relief corps. (Detroit actually may have had no bullpen answers at all, and the Dodgers weren’t far behind, with only Kenley Jansen as a reliable option.)
The most crucial decision for a manager in the playoffs typically was whether to leave his starting pitcher in the game for his third turn through the opposing lineup or go to a fresh arm from the bullpen. But for nearly every one of those skippers, that decision led to disaster and a frustrating loss. Only those who adapted to the situation, using their best relievers in the most urgent situations, rather than sticking to a rigid plan of “this is our sixth-inning guy, this is our seventh-inning guy,” etc. found success.
Based on what happened during the postseason, you could almost imagine some general managers meeting with the likes of Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields this winter, patting them on the shoulder (preferably the non-throwing one) and saying, “Son, we’d love to have you, but we can win without an ace. What we really need is a shutdown arm in that sixth or seventh inning. And those guys are going to be a hell of a lot cheaper. All the best to you, especially since you’re still going to make mad, mad money.”
This could make Andrew Miller the most sought after free agent on this year’s market. The left-hander only made five appearances during the postseason, but made a strong impression when he did pitch. Miller allowed only one hit and one walk in 7.1 innings, striking out eight batters. During the regular season, the 29-year-old struck out 103 batters in 62.2 innings, a rate of 14.9 Ks per nine innings.
The Orioles likely would have beaten the Tigers in the ALDS anyway, but manager Buck Showalter using Miller when he needed crucial middle-inning outs against Detroit’s power-hitting trio of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez was a key difference in the series. It also demonstrated how MLB managers should utilize their best bullpen arms, and other teams may seize the opportunity to add such a weapon to their pitching staffs.
Free agency still values closers and save totals most highly in evaluating relievers. That could keep Miller’s contract lower than expected, which might actually increase demand for him. But in this year’s class, David Robertson is really the only “proven,” experienced closer — and he’s only pitched in that role for one full season. Sergio Romo has more of a résumé, but lost the Giants’ closer job to Santiago Casilla this year. Francisco Rodriguez notched 44 saves for the Brewers in 2014, but will any team be willing to risk a big contract on him?
Spending big money on a closer looks even less appealing when you look at what the Tigers got for signing Joe Nathan to a two-year, $20 million contract. How did inking Brian Wilson to a one-year, $10 million deal work out for the Dodgers? And are they really happy that Wilson took his $8.5 million option for 2015? Meanwhile, three of the four teams left standing in the postseason developed their closers in-house, and Casilla signed for middle reliever money ($5 million per season).
All of this is not to suggest that teams in need of starting pitching especially a No. 1 starter shouldn’t pursue the top of this year’s free agent class. The Cubs could accelerate their rebuilding efforts by adding Lester to their rotation. The Yankees have a better shot at competing in the AL East with Scherzer as their ace. The same goes for the Red Sox, who need someone like Shields leading their starting staff. Plenty of teams will also find strong mid-rotation arms with the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano and Justin Masterson. But they very well could be eyed as bargains.
Yet the playoff contenders who largely have their starting rotations and late-inning bullpens in place may view Miller, Luke Gregerson and Jason Frasor as vital additions. Romo and Rodriguez may find more interest as affordable middle relievers than expensive closers. Reclamation bargains like Jason Motte, Sergio Santos, Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan, Jesse Crain, and Sean Burnett might be savvy, less heralded signings that ultimately make key contributions next season. Maybe some starting pitchers past their prime could reinvent themselves as middle-inning specialists.
There may be no better time in baseball to be a free agent middle reliever. The role has taken on more importance than ever, magnified by the results of the 2014 postseason. That may seem less obvious during the regular season, when not every out is crucial and managers often have to consider the next day instead of focus entirely on the game at hand. But upgrading this part of the roster could be the key difference between postseason success and failure.
