Monday evening was the deadline for teams to hand out qualifying offers to teams, and one offer really stood out from the bunch – the Rockies offering Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer was the 2013 NL batting champion, but he played in just 49 games in 2014 thanks to three different DL stints because of three different injuries.
So naturally, Colorado dishes out the qualifying offer, despite the fact that Cuddyer will be 36 on Opening Day and isn’t a good fielder. What’s the prevailing logic behind this? The Rockies had a franchise record $93.6 million payroll last season, and finished a 66-96, the second-worst record in franchise history. For 2015, they already have $63.4 million committed to just six players, with a whopping nine players eligible for arbitration. The club has five outfielders (not including Cuddyer) on the roster. What the hell is going on?
Here’s what might be going through the minds of the Rockies and brand new GM Jeff Bridich in regards to the Cuddyer qualifying offer.
A) Cuddyer accepts. If this happens, the Rockies are on the hook for another $15.3 million, pushing their payroll over $78 million. They now have six outfielders under control (excluding Kyle Parker, also on the 40-man roster), and will likely need to trade, or non-tender, one player. Carlos Gonzalez and the $54 million he’s owed over the next three years is the obvious option. It’s also worth noting that the only Rockies outfielders without options remaining are Gonzalez and Drew Stubbs, so someone like Brandon Barnes (who in reality, is a fourth or fifth outfielder and shouldn’t be a full-time starter), Charlie Blackmon, or Corey Dickerson could be banished to the minors. Stubbs could also be non-tender bait after making $4.1 million in 2014, but he actually put together a pretty solid season with the stick.
B) Cuddyer rejects, re-signs with Rockies for less than the qualifying offer. This seems like the most likely option here, because there is no chance that a team is going to give up a draft pick for a player like Cuddyer. However, this still puts the Rockies in a precarious place – even if they sign Cuddyer to a deal with less value (say, two years and $18 or $20 million), they’re still in a touchy place with their payroll, and they still have too many outfielders. Banishing one of their younger outfielders to the minors or trading one of the older, more expensive players would still be on the table here.
C) Cuddyer rejects, signs elsewhere. This is the ideal situation for the Rockies, yet the one that has the most minimal chance of happening in my opinion. In this case, the Rockies wouldn’t have Cuddyer, but they would have A) payroll flexibility and B) another draft pick. I doubt any team would be willing to give up a draft pick to sign Cuddyer, though – no one did last year for either Stephen Drew or Kendrys Morales.
D) Cuddyer rejects, sits out until after the Draft, signs somewhere. Finally, we have a situation that might work out best for all parties involved. After the Draft in June, the draft pick tied to Cuddyer will disappear, and he can sign anywhere without penalty to the signing team. But would Cuddyer be willing to sit out for the first two-plus months of 2015? That might be the best for his health, but as we saw last year with Drew and Morales, it’s far from a lock that he’ll perform at the level he did before sitting out.
What do I think will happen? I’m pretty sure that by giving Cuddyer an offer, the Rockies have made their bed with him for 2015, either for $15.3 million or less on a multi-year deal. What’s that mean for a franchise cornerstone in Carlos Gonzalez, who ownership has continually refused to consider trading? What’s that mean for young outfielders like Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon, and Drew Stubbs (who isn’t that young at 30, to be honest), all of whom put together two win seasons in 2014? Having depth isn’t a bad thing, but when two outfielders that missed a large chunk of time in 2014 with injuries are each making eight figures, maybe a team is better off cutting bait and going with the younger, cheaper, more productive players.
