With his ninth inning home run against the Astros on Thursday night, Lance Berkman officially passed his 2010 home run total. Last year, Berkman hit 13 with the Astros and one with the Yankees over 122 total games; this year he’s already got 15 bombs in less than half as many games.
How unlikely is Berkman’s power surge? Well, consider that his career wasn’t just on the downswing last season. Between 2000 and 2006, Berkman hit .308/.418/.571 with an average of 32 homers per season. Between 2007 and 2009, Berkman hit .289/.402/.530 with an average of 29 homers per season, but those averages were greatly buoyed by a strong 2008 season; Berkman had an .896 OPS in 2007 and a .907 OPS in 2009. Those are great numbers, but they were also the two lowest full-season OPSes of Berkman’s long career before things cratered for him in 2010.
That’s simply to say that Berkman’s career had what seemed to be a pretty clear downward slope prior to 2011. After 2009, Baseball-Reference identified Dick Allen as Berkman’s most similar hitter through the age of 33. Like Berkman, Allen mashed early in his career, began to decline in his 30s, and was out of baseball after his age-35 season. That means that when Berkman struggled last year, he was pretty much right on schedule with Allen, who only had one more year left in his tank.
Instead, Berkman’s having what is, to this point, a career year. Heading into last night’s action his OPS was 1.071, higher than his career high of 1.051 set a full decade ago in Houston. It’s even more impressive when you consider the depressed offensive environment of 2011; Berkman’s OPS+ (that is, OPS normalized to league performance with 100 being average) before last night’s game was 201, dwarfing his career best of 163 in 2003.
Instead of comparing Berkman to a guy who fizzled out a bit early like Allen, we might have to reevaluate. Berkman’s second most similar hitter through the age of 34 (that is, before this season began) is Willie Stargell. Stargell turned 34 in 1974, then from 1975-1979 he hit .281/.364/.525, he averaged 23 homers a season despite only playing in an average of 110 games, and he won an MVP Award in 1979 at the age of 39. His OPS+ over those four seasons was 142, nearly as good as his career 146 mark. Except for injuries limiting his time on the field, Pops didn’t slow down until he was 40. It remains to be seen if Berkman can keep this pace up for one full season, let alone four more after that, but life doesn’t have to end for a power hitter at the age of 34.
Also last night: Johnny Cueto out-dueled Madison Bumgarner, who got saddled with another hard luck loss, Joakim Soria got a save in his return to the closer’s role for the Royals, Bob Geren’s firing didn’t result in a win for the A’s, and the Yankees still can’t beat the Red Sox. Last night’s full results here.
On tonight’s schedule: Roy Halladay takes the mound for the Phillies against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs, Berkman’s Cardinals try to keep Chris Narveson and the Brewers from gaining ground on them in the NL Central, Ryan Vogelsong and Charlie Morton try to keep their unlikely comeback seasons going against the Reds and Mets, respectively, and the A’s are sending Graham Godfrey out to make his Major League debut in their quest to win a baseball game. Full slate of action here.
