During last night’s ESPN Wednesday Night Game pitting the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, IIATMS and Fire Brand of the AL had a live chat, and being a writer for IIATMS, I was a part of it. Because of a dinner engagement, I was a little late to the game when they were supposedly talking about baseball. My appearance, however, set off a pie vs. cake debate (started on Twitter one night), a discussion of my Twitterwhoredom (follow me @Mark_L_Smith!), and touched on the worst arms in the MLB.
The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the sixth. Boston was up 8-4, but with the bases loaded and one out, the Yankees had a real chance to cut into the lead. Francisco Cervelli, of all people, singled into left, and despite all we know about Carl Crawford’s atrocious arm and Brett Gardner’s blazing speed, Gardner stopped at third. Crawford’s throw to the cut-off man was both wide and slow-in-coming. This would prove to be a mistake. A few pitches later, a ball sailed past Jason Varitek, but Gardner, possibly because he didn’t see it, stayed at third. If he had scored on the hit, the runners would have moved to 2nd and 3rd, and even if Gardner had just scored there, the runners would have been on 2nd and 3rd. Well, you know what’s coming. Derek Jeter rolled into the old 5-4-3 double play. A terrible ninth inning opened the score even further to the final of 11-6.
Back to the chat, several of us questioned why Gardner didn’t run on Crawford, and the discussion predictably progressed into who had the worst arms. The usual suspects came up–Crawford, Johnny Damon, Juan Pierre, and someone else I can’t remember but was a good one. I was curious, so I looked up some stats.According to UZR, Raul Ibanez has the worst arm, followed by Kosuke Fukudome, Crawford, Lance Berkman, Pierre, Ryan Braun, Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Gardner, and Denard Span. If we look from 2009-2011, it goes Braun, JD Drew, Scott Podsednik, Span, Nick Swisher, Pierre, Corey Hart, Andre Eithier, and Jason Heyward.
Dewan’s +/- doesn’t totally agree. For this season, Chris Young has the worst arm with Marlon Byrd, Michael Saunders, Drew, Smith, Justin Upton, Quentin, Jose Tabata, Ichiro, and Ibanez following. Again expanding it out to 2009-2011 (generally these stats are most reliable after 2-3 years), Span takes the crown with Ichiro, Pierre, Chase Headley, Tabata, Braun, Heyward, Podsednik, Drew, and Dexter Fowler his princes.
These stats don’t just measure arm strength, however. They account for how many runners get extra bases on them, which could be due to a variety of factors–placement, accuracy of throws, caliber of runners, etc. That probably explains the existences of Ichiro and Heyward on these lists. But let’s look at this holistically. You’ll note that Crawford only falls on one of these lists. Pierre, Drew, and Braun pop up on three of these lists, so we’ll distill it down to them. Drew plays RF, and I feel like his distance from third probably allows a few more runners to go on him. Left fielders are close to third and probably shouldn’t allow as many baserunners to move up, leaving Braun and Pierre. What do the FANS think? Pierre grades out as a 0 on arm strength with Braun getting a 66. So I don’t know, but Pierre seems to be awfully low on all these lists.
Other Games Last Night:
Craig Kimbrel blew a save, but the Braves won in 10 … Bud Norris took a no-hitter into the 7th … Ogando went to 7-0 … The A’s lost their 9th straight … Matt Cain threw a masterpiece … And Andrew McCutchen walked it like it was hot … Amongst other games
Tonight’s Match-Ups:
Well, Trevor Cahill will try to snap the A’s 9-game losing streak, and it’s always fun to watch a team squirm, especially facing Mark Buehrle. Josh Beckett vs. CC Sabathia might be the pitching match-up of the night. And the Braves will go for the sweep of the Marlins and solidify their hold on second place in the NL East.
