The Royals are undefeated in the postseason, winning the wild-card playoff versus the A’s, sweeping the Angels in three games during the Division Series and not losing a game to the Orioles in the ALCS. So every button manager Ned Yost pushes — regardless of how crazy it might drive observers and analysts on social media — has seemingly worked in his team’s favor.
Yet while the Royals have gone on this improbable run largely by grinding out close ballgames, winning primarily with stellar defense, timely bunting and strong relief pitching, the same formula hasn’t applied to every one of this team’s victories. Kansas City will have to be adaptable, especially against a San Francisco Giants team that has no glaring weaknesses.
So what are the keys to a Royals World Series victory? Here are five things they’ll need to do to win.
Keep it close early on
Comparing these two teams, the Giants appear to have an advantage in starting pitching. Beginning with Madison Bumgarner in Game 1, followed by Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson in the next two games, San Francisco could control the early innings by keeping the Royals off the scoreboard.
That makes it important for the Royals’ starting pitchers — James Shields in Game 1, with Yordano Ventura and Jeremy Guthrie in the following two games — to keep pace and hold the Giants down. Or if San Francisco does score early on, the Royals have to answer back. (Naturally, jumping on the Giants starters and building a lead would be to Kansas City’s advantage, turning a lead over to its lockdown bullpen.)
But Shields has been shaky in the postseason, compiling a 5.63 ERA in three starts with 21 hits allowed in 16 innings. Compare that to Bumgarner’s 1.42 ERA in his four playoff starts with 28 strikeouts in 31.2 innings and Game 1 looks like a mismatch. It’s only one game of a possible seven-game series, of course, but this is where the Giants look to have a clear edge.
Establish the running game
The Royals stole more bases during the regular season than any other MLB club, nearly 100 more than the Giants. That’s a major weapon in the Kansas City arsenal. Royals batters only stole one base against the Orioles in the ALCS, so it’s not the only way this team can generate offense. Yet it very well could be the way to score runs, especially against San Francisco’s starting pitching.
Giants catcher Buster Posey threw out 30 percent (25-of-84) of opposing basestealers this season. In past years, Posey’s numbers were hurt by his pitchers doing a poor job of holding runners and throwing to the plate quickly, but that’s no longer the case. However, Giants pitchers can still take a cue from the Orioles in trying to control the Royals’ running game. Work fast. Vary time taken between pitches. Mix up tendencies in deliveries. Don’t give those basestealers a chance to establish timing or find a move they can run on.
If Royals batters get on base, they have to be careful not to give away outs when attempting to steal. However, there is something to be said for a team playing its game and doing what it does best. Challenging the Giants and trying to rattle their pitchers in the early games of the series could be crucial in setting a tone.
Big bats must produce
Kansas City has shown that a team can win without star sluggers launching balls out of the park. Yet it’s not a coincidence that the Royals have been so successful during the postseason as its major run producers have played up to expectations.
Eric Hosmer batted .270 with a .716 OPS during the regular season. But in the playoffs, he’s hitting .448 with a 1.314 OPS. Alex Gordon may only be batting .222 in the postseason, but has a .400 on-base percentage and is slugging .444. Mike Moustakas has four home runs and a .922 OPS. Lorenzo Cain is hitting .353 with an .820 OPS.
The Royals could really use production from Billy Butler and Salvador Perez in the World Series. Butler is especially important when the designated hitter is in the lineup during the games at Kauffman Stadium. He’s only batting .222 and slugging .296 in the postseason. Against lefties, he has a .314 average and .914 OPS. Success against Bumgarner in Game 1 would help greatly. Perez has been awful, batting .118 with a .261 OPS. Kansas City needs the guy who hit 17 home runs during the regular season.
Keep Giants in the yard at home
This might not seem entirely difficult for the Royals, since the Giants didn’t hit a home run in the NLCS versus the Cardinals until exploding for three longballs in the Game 5 clincher. But that seal has obviously been broken. During the regular season, San Francisco hit 79 home runs on the road (fourth in the NL), compared to 53 homers at AT&T Park.
Kauffman Stadium isn’t exactly a bandbox, however. According to ESPN.com Park Factors, Kansas City ranked No. 22 in home runs this season. But AT&T Park was last in MLB. If you look at ballpark overlays at Hit Tracker Online, you can see that the Royals’ home yard is deeper in left and right field, yet shorter in the right-center gap where fly balls and line drives go to die in San Francisco. That could yield some benefits to the Giants’ largely left-handed lineup, especially run producers like Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt.
Taking that into account, the Royals’ lefty sluggers — Gordon, Hosmer and Moustakas — may also want to capitalize on their home-field advantage while playing at least two games in Kansas City.
Brandon Finnegan and Danny Duffy need to get lefties out
As mentioned above, San Francisco’s lineup is stocked with left-handed hitters. Of the Giants’ five postseason home runs, four of them have been hit by lefties. Switch-hitting Pablo Sandoval is batting .326 with an .814 OPS. (Against right-handed pitching, he has a .350 average and .872 OPS.) The only left-handed starter in the Royals’ rotation is Jason Vargas, and he’s not pitching until Game 4. That could place added importance on the lefties in the Kansas City bullpen to get crucial outs, especially in the middle innings.
No worries in the late innings for the Royals. Left-handers are batting .133 with a .267 OPS against Wade Davis and .091 with a .424 OPS versus closer Greg Holland. Kelvin Herrera might be more vulnerable in such matchups, allowing a .273 average and .646 OPS. Manager Ned Yost isn’t likely to veer from his preference of pitching Herrera in the seventh, Davis in the eighth and Holland in the ninth.
But if the Royals’ starters can’t go seven innings — or if Herrera isn’t effective against lefties — that makes Brandon Finnegan a crucial bullpen component. Unfortunately, the rookie hasn’t been very good versus lefty batters, yielding a .333 average and .762 OPS. Yost hasn’t used Tim Collins very much in the postseason, probably because left-handers hit .273 with a .710 OPS against him.
That could make Danny Duffy especially valuable. It’s curious that he hasn’t pitched during the postseason, perhaps because he’s typically a starting pitcher. That could mean he’ll be rusty if he gets some action in the World Series. But Yost is probably going to need him. In the regular season, Duffy allowed a .137 average and .386 OPS versus left-handed hitters.
