Just before beginning the American League Championship Series, the Baltimore Orioles have gotten a head start on their offseason. According to several reports, the team signed shortstop J.J. Hardy to a three-year, $40 million contract extension. The deal also includes an option for 2018 that will vest based on plate appearances.
During his past four seasons in Baltimore, Hardy has been the best shortstop in the AL as ranked by WAR. He’s averaged 22 home runs and 69 RBI, while batting .259 with a .720 OPS. More importantly, Hardy has been outstanding defensively, saving 10 runs more than the average shortstop, according to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating, and averaging +11 Defensive Runs Saved.
At 32 years old, a three-to-four-year investment in Hardy by the Orioles might raise an eyebrow. Manny Machado seemed like he might be the future at shortstop, moving back to his former position from third base. But Machado’s recent injury history (and maturity issues) may be cause for concern. Additionally, Baltimore’s front office may feel that it’s more beneficial to keep Hardy at shortstop with Machado at third, rather than possibly letting Hardy go, moving Machado over and having to find a new third baseman.
This move has repercussions outside of Baltimore, however, particularly on the 2015 free agent market. Hardy figured to be one of the top shortstops available. Now, clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Athletics, Pirates and Dodgers in need of help at that position have one fewer option to choose from.
The demand for shortstops on the open market could have made Hardy more expensive had the O’s let him go to free agency. The $13.3 million annual value of Baltimore’s contract extension is barely more than the $13 million per season Jhonny Peralta is earning on the four-year deal he signed with the Cardinals last winter. Signing Hardy now might save the Orioles some money in years to come.
Hardy being taken off the market is surely good news for Hanley Ramirez, who now likely becomes the top free agent shortstop. Ramirez might be the superior offensive player, with a career .300 average, .873 OPS and averaging 19 homers a year during his 10 MLB seasons. In 2013, he hit.345 with a 1.040 OPS 20 home runs in 336 plate appearances. However, concerns over Ramirez’s defense and questions as to whether he’ll play shortstop in the future may hurt his market value.
The other players available hardly provide the consistency on offense and defense that Hardy has given the Orioles.
Stephen Drew provides strong defense at shortstop, but hit .162 with a .526 OPS in 300 plate appearances between the Red Sox and Yankees this year. Drew basically played half a season, as MLB teams didn’t want to surrender a first-round draft pick to sign him after he received a qualifying offer from Boston.
Asdrubal Cabrera hasn’t posted a batting average above .242 or OPS above .700 during the past two seasons. He’s been awful defensively, which might put his future at second base. That’s where he played with the Nationals after they acquired him from the Indians at the July 31 trade deadline.
After those three, the best available shortstops are the likes of Jed Lowrie (who batted .249 with a .676 OPS, plays average defense and is injury-prone) and Clint Barmes (who is a good defensive player, but a poor hitter, will turn 36 before next season and is probably a part-time player now).
Could Hardy have gotten more than $40 million or $13.3 million per season on the open market? Given the other options on the market, it certainly looks possible. But Hardy is playing for a World Series contender in Baltimore, and manager Buck Showalter reportedly pushed for re-signing him. Following the surer direction doesn’t look like the wrong decision.
