With the Orioles and Royals each ending their respective divisional series in three-game sweeps, both teams have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for their ALCS matchup. That’s also given analysts and commentators plenty of time to consider what might happen in this series.
The Orioles and Royals take two very different approaches to winning baseball games, with Baltimore relying on power and Kansas City depending on speed. Both clubs feature outstanding bullpens and strong starting pitching. So what could be the key difference between these two teams in this series? Here are five things to look for in the ALCS.
Can Orioles catchers control Royals running game?
By now, you know the Royals love to run. Kansas City led the AL with 153 stolen bases, and their ability to quickly put a runner in scoring position — especially in late innings — has been a major factor in winning close postseason games.
Yet the Orioles have a weapon behind the plate that could thwart the Royals’ running game in catcher Caleb Joseph. The 28-year-old threw out 40 percent (23-of-57) of attempted basestealers this season. However, Joseph isn’t much of a hitter, batting .207 with a .618 OPS in 275 plate appearances. That, along with Game 1 starter Chris Tillman preferring to work with Nick Hundley, could keep Joseph out of the starting lineup. Hundley threw out 13 percent (5-of-36) of opposing basestealers this year.
It’s possible that the Orioles could use Joseph as a defensive replacement in later innings. But unless manager Buck Showalter decides to carry three catchers on his ALCS roster, Baltimore likely won’t risk not having another reserve backstop if Joseph replaces Hundley during a game.
The Royals will likely run regardless of who’s behind the plate. That’s their game, and stealing bases puts pressure on the pitcher and catcher. But if Kansas City runs freely on the basepaths, the Orioles may have no choice but to play Joseph and try to control that aspect of the ballgame.
Is Wei-Yin Chen the weak link in Baltimore’s rotation?
Based on regular season stats, the Orioles and Royals match up evenly. Kansas City starting pitchers compiled a 3.60 ERA, while Baltimore starters were right behind them with a 3.61 mark. The story has been a bit different in the postseason, however.
The Orioles are getting a 4.20 ERA from their starting pitching, while the Royals’ 3.38 ERA ranks third among postseason rotations. Naturally, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here since both clubs swept their divisional series in three games.
Baltimore’s ERA is skewed heavily by Wei-Yin Chen’s poor performance in Game 2 of its ALDS versus the Tigers. He gave up five runs and seven hits (two of them home runs) in 3.2 innings. Yet Tillman allowed only two runs and four hits over five innings in Game 1, while Bud Norris was outstanding in Game 3, pitching 6.1 scoreless innings and giving up only two hits.
But Royals starting pitching shut down the AL’s most productive lineup in their ALDS. The Angels led MLB with 773 runs scored during the regular season, ranking among the AL’s top five clubs with a .259 average and .728 OPS. Yet they scored six runs in three games against the Royals.
With so little margin for error, can Showalter start Chen in the ALCS? Chen went 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA during the regular season, which probably gives him some benefit of the doubt. Yet that ALDS start is still fresh in the memory. Of course, the Tigers lineup does feature more power than the Royals.
How is Kelvin Herrera’s forearm?
A major factor in the Royals’ success has been their shutdown bullpen, beginning with Kelvin Herrera in the seventh inning. As we saw in the AL wild-card playoff, when the game doesn’t allow Kansas City manager Ned Yost to employ his relievers in their customary roles, he makes strange decisions like bringing in starter Yordano Ventura to bridge that gap between starting pitcher and bullpen.
Herrera only faced one batter in Game 1 of the ALDS, leaving with discomfort in his forearm. That was an eyebrow-raising concern, as forearm issues can often be the precursor to more serious elbow injuries. However, Herrera did pitch in Game 3 on Sunday, throwing 12 pitches and allowing no hits in a scoreless inning. With four days of rest before the ALCS, the Royals’ setup man should be fine. But this could be something to watch if this series goes six or seven games.
Could Camden Yards be a home-field disadvantage?
Conventional opinion says that the Orioles play in a more hitter-friendly ballpark at Camden Yards, while the Royals’ Kauffman Stadium provides a better environment for pitchers. Park factors (via ESPN.com) for 2014 blows up that opinion, showing that more runs were scored in Kansas City’s home ballpark than in Baltimore’s. Camden Yards was still more conducive to allowing home runs, but just barely.
But the Royals’ best power hitters — Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas — are all left-handed. Hosmer and Moustakas each have two home runs in the postseason. (Salvador Perez and Billy Butler also provide pop from the right side, but both are slugging under .160 during the playoffs.) And according to other websites’ park factors, Camden Yards is very friendly to left-handed power hitters.
FanGraphs’ information only goes to 2013, but for that season, Camden Yards was better for southpaw sluggers than any other AL ballpark. RotoGrinders’ park factors has the Orioles’ home ballpark as one of the friendliest to left-handed batters in MLB, while allowing the second-highest slugging percentage (.441) from that side of the plate. Is it possible that Camden Yards might actually work in the Royals’ favor during the ALCS?
Will Buck Showalter outmanage Ned Yost?
The easy, reflexive answer is to say yes. Analysts and commentators have lined up to praise the Orioles’ skipper for how he’s managed his team during the postseason.
In Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Detroit, Showalter pitched Andrew Miller in the sixth inning — earlier than usual — with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez set to bat. The Orioles effectively put the game away there, neutralizing the Tigers’ best chance to tie the score.
In Game 3, Showalter surprised many by giving Bud Norris the start, not informing his pitcher of the decision until shortly after Game 2. That gave Norris little time to overthink his assignment, and he made Showalter look brilliant by holding Detroit scoreless for 6.1 innings during the Orioles’ ALDS clincher.
Yost, meanwhile, grates many observers with his frequent preference for bunting and giving up outs, rather than trying to build more offense in a given inning. His insistence on sticking with players in established roles — especially in regards to his bullpen — rather than adapting to the dictates of a particular ballgame nearly cost the Royals dearly in the wild-card playoff.
Will Yost rigidly stick to his beliefs during the ALCS or has he learned that the postseason often calls for more flexibility? Experience has shown Showalter that managing in the playoffs requires different decision-making.
