In a battle of two 90+ win teams and two preseason playoff favorites, the Cardinals and Dodgers are set for a huge matchup in the first round of the playoffs. Here are five things to look out for in their NLDS matchup.
The Dodgers’ hitting and speed edge
The Dodgers led baseball with a 110 wRC+, while the Cardinals actually had a slightly below average offense with a 98 mark. Los Angeles hit 29 more homers and had a slugging percentage about 10% higher than St. Louis.
The hitting edge lies distinctly with Los Angeles, thanks to six of their regulars posting a wRC+ above 119. Matt Kemp had an awesome second half as did Carl Crawford. Hanley Ramirez had an injury-riddled season and did not post numbers anywhere close to what he did last season, but he still hit .283/.369/.448 in 128 games played.
The other distinct offensive edge the Dodgers have is on the bases. Dee Gordon stole 64 bags himself, which is more than the entire Cardinal roster. Add in Crawford’s 23 stolen bases, Hanley’s speed, and Yasiel Puig nabbing 11, and the Dodgers can utilize either their power edge or their speed edge in this series.
Back end of the rotations
Clayton Kershaw against Adam Wainwright will be one of, if not the, most anticipated matchups in the first round of the post-season. But the real story with the rotations is what happens to each after the top two are done.
In game three the Cardinals are currently set to roll out John Lackey, who in 10 starts with the Cardinals has a 4.30 ERA and a 3-3 record, which is not too impressive to say the least in this pitching environment. In game four they are tossing out Shelby Miller, who tossed 183 innings but had a low strikeout rate and high walk rate, and was only barely above replacement level for the season as he netted just 0.2 fWAR.
The Dodgers are in similar trouble. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not pitched since September 12th after he left the game just one inning into his start. He pitched a simulated game that should have him on track to start game three if he is healthy enough, but who knows how effective he will be coming off the injury. He has been extremely effective this season and if the Dodgers plan to make a deep run into the playoffs, a healthy Ryu would be huge. Dan Haren, he of the 4.02 ERA and 27 home runs allowed, will likely start game three in his place if he is unable to go. If the series lasts long enough, it’s possible that Kershaw will come in for game four rather than Haren or Ryu, which pushes the rotation pendulum in favor of Los Angeles.
Which bullpen will hold up?
For the season, their respective bullpen ERA’s are 3.62 (Cardinals) and 3.80 (Dodgers). That is not very impressive at all. Even though both bullpens have big name closers and other talented bullpen arms, late game situations have not been the most comfortable for either so far. It almost goes without saying, but I expect the team that struggles least bullpen-wise will come away with the series victory in this matchup of perennial National League juggernauts.
Who will step up at the plate for the Cardinals?
St. Louis used to have a lineup full of stars. Now it looks like a lot of role players surrounding an aging Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Holliday is the only regular with a wRC+ above 120 for the Cardinals, so they will need a Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, or Jon Jay to step up and provide some offense against Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
While, as I mentioned, I think this series will come down to which bullpen implodes the least, it could be over extremely quickly if the St. Louis bats go cold against the Cy Young award winners. The good news is that in the first two games the Cardinals have Wainwright and Lance Lynn going for them, so they likely will not need to score a ton to keep them in the game or give them a lead, but they will need to put something on the board or else they will not even get to the Los Angeles bullpen.
Yadier Molina against Dee Gordon
This will be somewhat of a game within a game. It is possible that Gordon does not get on base enough to even make this an issue, but if he is able to get on you can almost guarantee he will be running, even against the likes of the youngest Molina brother.
I mentioned earlier that the Dodgers have a distinct running advantage against the Cardinals, but having Molina behind the plate could neutralize that and really help out the Cardinal pitching staff. The Cardinals had the second highest DRS this season, backed by stellar defensive years by their up the middle defense. Keeping the running game in check could be huge, and the biggest threat on the bases for the Dodgers is most certainly Flash Jr.
