The Tigers became the first team eliminated from the divisional series round, getting swept in three games by the Orioles. That early exit is a surprise, but how Detroit lost the series shouldn’t be. The Tigers’ defensive and bullpen flaws were apparent throughout the season, as was their tendency to get shut down by presumably mediocre pitching. Those deficiencies were completely exposed versus Baltimore and a short series allowed scant opportunity to overcome them.
While the expectation — as it has been for the past few seasons — was to win the World Series, the Tigers realistically weren’t going to do so with their flawed roster, despite their significant advantage in starting pitching and a still-powerful lineup that scored the second-most runs in MLB. Manager Brad Ausmus raised questions about his capabilities in his first season on the job, but general manager Dave Dombrowski has to do a better job in the offseason of building a deeper, more complete roster around his superstar hitters and pitchers if the Tigers are to stay in contention.
Preseason Prediction: Though the Tigers look less impressive with Fielder, Peralta and Fister now playing elsewhere, and the Indians and Royals presented themselves as viable competitors in the AL Central, this is still Detroit’s division to lose. There’s still plenty of talent here to finish in first place, contend for one of the best records in the league and compete for a World Series championship. (That window is closing, however.) The Tigers won 93 games last year, finishing just ahead of Cleveland. Winning that many games or a few more is entirely plausible. (Ian Casselberry, March 7th)
What Went Right: The Tigers had to sweat it out until the last day of the regular season, but they did win their fourth straight AL Central title. Had the team finished behind the Royals, Detroit still would have qualified for the postseason as a wild card. That effort was helped in part by Dombrowski pulling off the surprise of the July 31 trade deadline, nabbing David Price from the Rays and adding him to a rotation that already included Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander.
In his final season before free agency (and probably his last with Detroit), Scherzer followed up his 2013 Cy Young Award by going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts. Though he allowed nearly two more runs per nine innings this year, Scherzer finished among the AL’s top three starters with 252 strikeouts and within the top five by throwing 220.1 innings. He’ll arguably be the top starting pitcher available in free agency, along with Jon Lester and James Shields, and will likely fetch the largest deal.
Also excelling in the final year of his contract was designated hitter Victor Martinez. With Miguel Cabrera recovering from core muscle surgery and posting diminished numbers as a result, Martinez was the Tigers’ most consistent run producer. The 35-year-old hit a career-high 32 homers and led the AL with a .409 on-base percentage and .974 OPS, while finishing second in the league with a .335 batting average. The Tigers would love to bring Martinez back, but he’ll be in high demand on the free agent market.
What Went Wrong: Detroit’s bullpen was the major factor in losing the 2013 ALCS to the Red Sox and Dombrowski did little to improve that part of the roster this season. However, it wasn’t for lack of trying. The team signed Joe Nathan, hoping he would bring stability at closer that the bullpen lacked in the previous two seasons. The Tigers also took a chance on Joba Chamberlain, inking him to a lower-cost, one-year deal.
Dombrowski also signed Joel Hanrahan, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery took longer than expected and he wasn’t able to contribute. In addition, Detroit acquired Joakim Soria, but an oblique injury limited him to 13 appearances and he was completely ineffective upon returning for the postseason.
The Tigers’ bullpen finished with a 4.29 ERA, third-worst in the AL, and a .270 opponents’ batting average and .752 OPS that was last in the league. Those issues were magnified in the postseason, as the Orioles feasted upon that subpar relief corps. In three games with Baltimore, Detroit relievers compiled a 19.29 ERA, .348 opponents’ batting average and .923 OPS.
Another season-long problem that the Tigers couldn’t overcome was the lack of a reliable shortstop. After losing Jose Iglesias for the season with stress fractures in his shins, Detroit tried to patch that hole with Alex Gonzalez and Andrew Romine. Later in the year, Eugenio Suarez was called up from the minors, but lost Ausmus’ trust by the end of the season.
Tigers shortstops finished with a collective .223 average and .579 OPS, both last in the AL. Defensively, they were responsible for -10 Defensive Runs Saved, costing the team nearly two runs more than the average performance at that position in the league.
Most Surprising Player: J.D. Martinez was released by the Astros in spring training, apparently squeezed out in a roster crunch. Assistant GM Al Avila was familiar with Martinez and tried to convince Dombrowski to trade for him. With a need for a power bat in the outfield, the Tigers eagerly snapped him up when he became available. In doing so, Detroit uncovered one of the breakout gems of the 2014 season.
Martinez hit 23 home runs, third among Tigers everyday players, with 30 doubles, a .315 batting average and .912 OPS in a career-high 480 plate appearances. He carried that success into the postseason, slugging two home runs versus the Orioles while compiling a 1.083 OPS. Not bad at all for a guy Detroit signed to a minor league deal and has all three seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining. Whether or not Martinez’s performance was a fluke is a question the Tigers will ponder throughout the offseason and into spring training. But for now, it appears that he’ll be Detroit’s regular left fielder next season, filling a position that was previously a question mark.
Most Disappointing Player: As mentioned above, the Tigers signed Joe Nathan with the hopes that he’d provide stability to a ninth inning that had been hugely uncertain for the bullpen going back to the 2012 postseason (if not before then). With his success during the previous two seasons with the Rangers, Detroit had ample reason to believe their closer role would no longer be a problem. Nathan compiled a 2.09 ERA in Texas, striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings and racking up 80 saves.
Instead, the 39-year-old showed his age and was largely unreliable all season in the ninth inning. Nathan’s strikeout rate dropped to 8.4 per nine innings, while he allowed hits and walks at a higher rate than at any point in his career since becoming a regular major league reliever. Perhaps even worse, the veteran let Tigers fans get into his head with their booing, embarrassing himself by gesturing at them on the field.
That uncertainly forced the front office to try and find potential replacements, but none worked out and Ausmus had no choice but to trust that Nathan would get better. By the end of the regular season, Nathan did improve — especially in comparison to Chamberlain and Soria, who became highly questionable in their setup roles — and was probably the Tigers’ most reliable reliever. With another year on his contract and his late-season turnaround, Nathan will be Detroit’s closer again next season. The Tigers just have to build a stronger setup crew in front of him.
The Future: Tigers fans will look at this season as a blown opportunity, and perhaps one of the last chances this team had at fulfilling its World-Series-or-bust expectations. That could be especially true if (when?) the team loses Scherzer and Victor Martinez in free agency. The Royals have also likely overtaken Detroit as the best team in the AL Central.
But the Tigers will still boast a rotation with Price, Sanchez and Verlander at the top, along with Rick Porcello coming off the best season of his major league career (3.43 ERA, 204.2 innings pitched). That’s a strong foundation to work with, while younger arms like Robbie Ray and Kyle Lobstein are in the mix for that fifth spot.
Though competition will be fierce, there will also be plenty of relievers available that could help upgrade the bullpen. The Tigers won’t be looking for a closer, which could save them some money. Andrew Miller and Luke Gregerson are among the arms that could make a significant impact for Detroit if they’re added. But if the team wants to spend closer money, Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Janssen and Sergio Romo are possibilities to consider as well.
However, Dombrowski will also have some significant lineup issues to address — even more so, if Martinez signs elsewhere. Finding a center fielder to replace Austin Jackson will surely be the team’s offseason priority. And with the free agent selection extremely thin, the front office will almost certainly have to make a trade to upgrade that position. (Colorado Rockies? Dombrowski is on line one. He’s also on hold with the Red Sox.)
Detroit may also be in the market for a right fielder, with Torii Hunter very unlikely to return (and possibly retiring). The hope will be that prospects Tyler Collins or Stephen Moya could take over, but neither player may be ready — or capable — of that. And with Alex Avila suffering his third concussion in the Tigers’ ALDS loss, the team has to face the very real possibility that he may have to retire for his own well-being. But James McCann may be ready to step in at catcher.
The Tigers’ days as an AL Central and league pennant favorite may be over, but the team figures to be in the playoff mix through next season. Dombrowski just has to do a far better job of building a deeper bullpen and bench, rather than invest heavily in highly-paid star talent, to give his manager more pieces to work with.
