After an early elimination from the playoffs in 2013, anything less than an extended run into the postseason in 2014 would be disappointing. The Indians are now disappointed. A whole crew of players that casual baseball fans have never heard of were good enough to get into that Wild Card game and despite many of them improving as they entered their prime, but it wasn’t enough this time thanks to a slightly more improved Royals team and the amazing AL West. If there was one word to describe this year’s Tribe it would be mediocrity. They will finish above .500, but just barely, and are right in the middle of the pack as far as runs scored (11th) and and allowed (16th) and had a very below average defense.
Preseason Prediction: Despite losing Jimenez, the Indians have a deep enough pitching staff and lineup to keep them in contention this season. However, competing with the Tigers and Royals in the AL Central is only one concern. If the Tribe can’t overtake the Tigers in the division, they face a tougher wild-card race than last season. The Rangers, Yankees and Orioles are considerably improved, while the Angels could be a factor as well. Even if the Indians can match last year’s 92 wins — which seems entirely plausible — that might not be enough to get into the postseason. (Ian Casselberry, March 6th)
What Went Right: On an individual player level, the Indians had quite a few stars. While Michael Brantley was the team’s only All-Star, they have the best catcher in the American League in Yan Gomes (first in OPS, runs scored, RBI and triples, second in average and home runs, third in doubles among AL catchers), along with top offensive performers in Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall. Of course, this is less than half the lineup and this was important as the rest batted at a replacement player level.
The best part of the 2014 Indians was the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation. Corey Kluber had the best season by an Indians pitcher since the 1970’s, with 18 wins, a 2.44 ERA and a league high 269 strikeouts, including 39 in his last three starts. He has essentially pushed the Cy Young award into a two man race along with Felix Hernandez, but Kluber hasn’t even been the Indians’ best pitcher in the second half. Since the All-Star Break and being returned to the rotation early in August, Carlos Carrasco has a 1.77 ERA in 71 innings with 76 strikeouts. Since the All-Star Break, the whole Tribe pitching staff has been on fire, coming in second in the AL in ERA (3.07) and first in strikeouts (614).
What Went Wrong: It is easier to say what went right with the Indians than what went wrong, as they had problems with every facet of the team from one time or another. Problems with the offense, bullpen depth and defense were season-long issues. The most problematic of these was the defense, which allowed 67.3 more runs than the average defense according to Fangraphs UZR. Making this even more extreme, the Indians actually improved their defense late in the season by using Jose Ramirez (+7.2 UZR in 480.2 innings) at shortstop instead of Asdrubal Cabrera (-6.9 in 820.2 innings) and Carlos Santana (-0.7 in 842) at first instead of Nick Swisher (-5.9 in 459). What seemed like a poor offense for the Tribe actually scored 662 runs and the pitching staff allowed 580 earned runs (649 total). With even an average defense for the entire season and those runs subtracted, it would have changed a .506 Pythagorean winning percent (82 expected wins) to a .562 (91 expected wins), which would have not only been enough to win the Wild Card, but the division outright.
Most Surprising Player: Already mentioned briefly, Carlos Carrasco had a tremendous turn around this year that could never have been predicted. In 2013, Kluber was the Indians’ third best starter and was slated to pitch second in the rotation this year, so his emergence was not a huge surprise. Carrasco, on the other hand, barely made the team out of Spring Training and then, only did so because he was out of minor league options. In his first four starts, Carrasco lost three, giving up at least four runs in every game. Afraid to waste his talent, he was relegated to the bullpen, where he excelled, posting a 2.30 ERA in 43 innings with a .217 BAA.
In early August, the trade of Justin Masterson left a hole in the rotation and after juggling pitchers for a few weeks, Carrasco was allowed to return. He threw five shutout innings in his return, earning him a second chance, and he never looked back. In nine starts, he allowed more than one run just twice and gave up nothing in four starts including his first complete game shut out against Houston on September 17th. While this turn around seems unlikely and possible short termed, it was very similar to what Ubaldo Jimenez did last season, also under pitching coach Mickey Callaway. Unlike Jimenez, however, Carrasco is under team control through 2017, giving him a much better chance to succeed in 2015 with another year under Callaway’s tutelage.
Most Disappointing Player: While many Indians fans feel Nick Swisher with his hefty salary was the most disappointing player on the team or that Jason Kipnis didn’t play up to expectations, there was one player on the Tribe who had the highest of expectations and produced less than nothing for the Indians in 2014. Justin Masterson helped bring the Indians to the play-offs in 2013 as the team’s most consistent starter and was slated to be the team’s ace going into March, but that didn’t last past day one. In the first game of the season, he gave up just three hits in seven shutout innings against Oakland, but in his next two starts, he gave up 10 runs and didn’t pitch through the fifth in either, a trend that would continue throughout the year. In his following 18 starts after Opening Day, he allowed at least five runs on nine occasions and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning 11 times. What made this doubly important was the fact that Chris Antonetti and the Indians were planning on trading Masterson mid-season anyway due to his contract situation and instead of getting a player who could help at the moment, like the Red Sox did with Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester, they received outfielder James Ramsey, a AA level player with no guarantee of a major league future.
The Future: The future is always bright in Cleveland, it’s the present and past you have to worry about. The Indians minor league system is filled with talented players including first round picks Francisco Lindor and Tyler Naquin, who are both set to make their MLB debuts in 2015. In addition, the core of the team will be returning, losing no major players to free agency, and most of them will be entering their prime. While Michael Brantley and Corey Kluber may not improve upon their amazing years, Jason Kipnis (who will be 28 in 2015), Carlos Santana (29) and Lonnie Chisenhall (26) could all be even better and all five players will be under team control through at least 2017. This Indians team is not just built to win now, but to continue winning for the next three seasons as well.
