For whatever reason, Cleveland seems to be the place to be for late 20’s breakouts from starting pitchers. Cliff Lee set the tone for the Indians a few years back, and this year, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have followed in his footsteps.
It is unfortunate for the Indians that Carrasco’s dominance, along with Danny Salazar’s resurgence, occurred so late in the season. If they had gotten this going earlier on, the Indians would be right there in the thick of things in the AL Central and at least holding onto a Wild Card spot rather than being five games back with only a bit more than a week left to play.
Carrasco has been back in the rotation for eight starts now, posting a 1.17 ERA over 54 innings with 59 strikeouts and just seven walks. At just 27-years-old and arbitration eligible through 2017, Carrasco could end up being a very big part of the Indians future. That’s not bad for a guy who looked like a failed starter coming into the year. Of course, you cannot bank everything on eight great starts, but with a mid-90’s fastball, solid control, and impressive strikeout ability, Carrasco has the ability to look more like a front end starter than the back-end/swing man type we thought he was going to be entering the year.
Kluber has obviously been the big story of the year in Cleveland, as he has arguably been the top pitcher in the American League. There were reasons to expect Kluber to impress this year, with an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio in just under 150 innings last season, but nobody could have expected him to turn into one of the game’s most dominant starters, as he continues to compete for the most innings pitched, most strikeouts, and lowest FIP in all of baseball.
The most talked about starter before the season for the Indians was youngster Danny Salazar. He got off to a terrible start and was eventually sent down to the minors to get things right, but the 24-year-old rebounded nicely and has posted a 3.30 ERA over 57 innings since returning from the minors, including a shutout earlier this month against the Tigers in which he struck out nine and walked no batters – a very positive sign as command was an issue that led to his demotion.
Kluber will be a free agent in 2019 and Salazar will follow him the year after. On top of having those three extremely talented starters, the Indians will also enter next year with 25-year-old T.J. House — who currently sports a 3.42 ERA and 3.69 FIP in 92 innings pitched – and Trevor Bauer. Bauer was once one of the most interesting prospects in baseball, due to his odd pregame regimen and willingness to keep the ball up in the zone. Bauer has started 24 games so far this year and has a 4.04 ERA. If a soon to be 24-year-old who already has that many starts under his belt is entering the season as your fifth starter, you have to think the Indians are going to be in a pretty good position on the mound entering next year, to say the least.
You cannot mention breakouts and the future of the Indians without mentioning Michael Brantley, either. He has currently been worth 6.1 fWAR, and is right on the cusp of a 20-20 season with almost 100 RBI and 100 runs to boot. Brantley is entering his peak just at the right time for the Indians, as he will play next season at age-28. Oh, and he’s locked up through 2018 for a maximum cost of $30 million.
Along with Brantley, the offense packs a nice combination of power (Yan Gomes and Carlos Santana), speed (Michael Bourn and Jason Kipnis), and impressive defense (Jose Ramirez). Defense is definitely a place to be concerned about with Cleveland, but having a 22-year-old slick fielder at the most important defensive position should help solve some of those problems going forward. The emergence of Ramirez this year could make either him or top prospect Francisco Lindor expendable in the future.
All-in-all, the Indians are a well balanced team, and I think they would be one of the most dangerous teams in baseball if they were in the playoffs this season. Unfortunately, they got off to a sluggish start and some of their starters did not turn it on until later in the year. With top end talent like Kluber, Brantley, and Santana along with guys who have performed like top end guys either this season or in past seasons in Jason Kipnis, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, this team should be a young force to be reckoned with next season. I can say with pretty good confidence that every team in the American League right now is pretty happy that the Indians are going to be sitting at home this October.
