From my Cubs season preview on Monday…
Burning Question
Is the Cubs rotation solid enough to break .500 after Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster?
You know what you’re getting out of Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster: 15 or so wins, maybe 200 strikeouts, and an ERA lower than 4.00. Those are two legitimate, solid starting pitchers who could go for nearly any team in the league.
But then, there are…the others.
Chicago’s final three starters as of right now are Pirates castoff Paul Maholm, converted reliever Jeff Samardzija, and former Marlins soft-tosser Chris Volstad. That is not a murderer’s row that strikes fear into the hearts of all. Hell, let’s throw Randy Wells in the mix too, because he’s essentially the sixth starter right now. So, looking at those four pitchers, are you really getting scared as a Cubs opponent?
We’ll start with Maholm. His innings pitched have gone down in each season since 2008, and his groundball rate has gone down in each of those four seasons as well. He’s been a solid two or three win pitcher, but his stats don’t blow you away overall. He strikes out 5.55 batters per nine innings in his career, and walks 3.01 per nine. Away from PNC Park over his career, he has a 5.03 ERA and 4.47 FIP. Moving to Wrigley Field, which has the tendency to be an extreme hitter’s park when the wind is blowing out, could be a disaster for him.
In parts of four seasons in the majors, all but three appearances of which have been spent in the bullpen, Samardzija has accrued 0.3 fWAR and has a 4.40 ERA and 4.54 FIP. Control has been a major issue for him, walking 5.30 batters per nine innings. His main asset, a fastball that averaged 95.1 miles per hour last season, will be dampered in the rotation, where he’ll be expected to throw 80 or 90 pitches a start instead of 15 or 20. Instead of going all-out, he’ll need to manage his velocity better…which in turn, robs him of his best weapon. Last season was the year that showed Cubs management that Samardzija could be a starter, as he struck out nearly a batter per inning with an ERA under 3.00 and posted a 0.51 homer rate, more than 2/3 less than the rate he posted in 2011. However, he still walked over five batters per inning.
Volstad has spent his entire four season career as a starter for the Marlins, and he’s been thoroughly unremarkable. He has a lot of the same characteristics as Maholm: not a lot of strikeouts (5.83 per nine), a lot of walks (3.14 per nine), and he allows a lot of homers (1.11 per nine). The homer rate is odd when you consider his over 50% career groundball rate. Put it all in a blender and you have a guy with an ERA of 4.59 and a FIP of 4.52 who is homer happy, and going to a park where homers tend to happen in bunches. I don’t see this ending well at all.
Wells is the incumbent Cubs starter among this quartet, but he has the same problems as Maholm and Volstad. Seriously? He has a career 5.95 strikeout rate, 2.86 career walk rate, and a 1.01 career homer rate. However, he’s got a 4.01 career ERA and 4.24 career FIP, which looks better than the other two. But yet….the Cubs immediately dump him from the rotation for two inferior pitchers? Zuh?
Out of these four, Wells is probably the safest bet, Samardzija provides the biggest risk and the biggest reward, and Volstad and Maholm are wild cards that are essentially the same pitcher as Wells, but two guys who are moving into an unfamiliar environment in Chicago. Looking at these four, I don’t see any way that they’re all above average. I’d be shocked if more than one of them had an ERA under 4.00.
If I had to take one, I’d probably roll the dice and take Samardzija, just because of his tantalizing upside and the ability to throw him back in the bullpen if things don’t work out, a benefit that wouldn’t work well with any of the other three. As for Maholm, Volstad, and Wells, it really doesn’t matter. They’re all the same guy. Ride the hot hand, I guess.
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