The Padres were viewed as a sleeper contender coming into the 2014 season. They probably weren’t capable of hanging with the Dodgers and Giants (or maybe even the Diamondbacks) in the NL West, but if either of the favorites faltered and the Padres’ roster stayed healthy throughout the season, there was a chance that meaningful baseball could be played in San Diego during September.
Our 2014 Padres season preview was unfortunately lost in some terrifying back-end glitch. Or mysterious powers chose to snatch that post into the internet ether. Thus, there’s no preseason prediction to look back on. But with the pitching that the Padres had on hand, it wasn’t outlandish to project this team for at least 81 wins and possibly nipping at the edges of the NL wild-card race. Of course, that was contingent on those pitchers staying healthy and getting production from several key hitters in the lineup.
General manager Josh Byrnes was fired in late June, and a three-headed interim replacement of Omar Minaya, A.J. Hinch and Fred Uhlman Jr. did a nice job of shedding expendable players while hanging on to other appealing trade pieces that could help next season. Did they leave a decent core of talent for new GM A.J. Preller to work with? Or will it take a while for Preller’s background in international scouting and development to yield some benefits?
What Went Right: Pitching was indeed the strength of this Padres club, allowing them to be competitive despite a lackluster lineup. San Diego’s 3.28 team ERA was the second-best in the NL with a .242 opponents’ batting average and .670 OPS that finished among the top three in the league.
Especially impressive was the Padres’ bullpen, whose collective 2.69 ERA was the NL’s best, holding batters to a .221 average and .622 OPS. The unit was deep enough that San Diego could afford to trade Huston Street for prospects and still have Joaquin Benoit to pitch the ninth inning. And when Benoit was sidelined with a sore shoulder, Kevin Quackenbush thrived as the closer, perhaps setting the stage for him pitching in that role next year.
Andrew Cashner was generally perceived as the Padres’ No. 1 starter, but shoulder injuries sidelined him twice this season. However, San Diego may have found an ace in Tyson Ross, who built upon a promising 2013 to emerge as one of the best starting pitchers in the NL. In his first full season as a starter, the 27-year-old ranked among the league’s top 10 (as of Sept. 19) with a 2.81 ERA, 195 strikeouts, 1.21 WHIP and .230 opponents’ batting average. He’ll also throw 200 innings, giving the Padres at least three starters (along with Ian Kennedy and Eric Stults) capable of reaching that threshold.
What Went Wrong: Good pitching can only take a team so far if its offense is ineffective. The Padres were feeble, finishing dead last in MLB in runs scored — and it wasn’t even close, with the next-closest team outscoring them by more than 60 runs. San Diego also won the triple crown in slash average categories, finishing last in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
With the exception of Seth Smith, there were no standout players in the Padres lineup. Jedd Gyorko batted .211 and Will Venable hit .222, making their 2013 success look like flukes. Everth Cabrera posted a .572 OPS. Yasmani Grandal had a .212 batting average. Chase Headley batted .229, yet drew trade interest.
And how much longer will the Padres stick with Yonder Alonso? Wrist and forearm injuries limited him to 84 games. But Alonso doesn’t hit for power, and if he doesn’t notch at least 30 doubles nor hit .300, how useful an offensive player is he? Never mind that Alonso plays first base, where most teams have a premium power bat.
Most Surprising Player: The Padres got Seth Smith from the A’s to provide a left-handed bat to the lineup, preferably with some power. San Diego was dealing from a strength in trading reliever Luke Gregerson, but had the team given up a strong bullpen arm for a part-time player? Was Smith better suited for a right-field platoon with Chris Denorfia? During his two years in Oakland, he finished with fewer than 450 plate appearances. In only one of his seven previous major league seasons could you say Smith played full-time.
Smith turned out to be extremely valuable for the Padres, giving the lineup its only reliable run producer during the season. Perhaps the team was hoping for more than 12 home runs, but Smith’s .265 average and .811 OPS were easily the best among San Diego everyday players in those categories. With a .368 on-base percentage and 65 walks — both career-best totals — he was also the only Padres batter getting on base consistently.
The Padres were so happy with Smith’s production that they gave him a two-year, $13 million contract (with a $13 million option for 2016). That was a bit of a head-scratcher, considering Smith could have been a useful trade piece at the July 31 deadline. But the front office (even after Byrnes was fired) apparently felt it was worth hanging onto its one productive bat, rather than deal him away for fringe prospects.
Most Disappointing Player: We mentioned Jedd Gyorko’s .211 batting average already, but let’s look a bit deeper. Coming off a 2013 season during which he led the team with 23 home runs and 63 RBI, the Padres viewed Gyorko as a cornerstone player — either at second base, where his numbers stood out above the norm, or as a replacement at third base for Chase Headley when he departed via trade or free agency.
Consequently, San Diego signed the 25-year-old to a five-year, $35 million deal (with a $13 million option for 2020), buying out his arbitration seasons and first year of free agency. But Gyorko didn’t look like a good investment in the first year of that contract, batting .211 with a .615 OPS while batting foot and hamstring injuries.
If Gyorko turns himself around, the contract extension will look smart, potentially saving the Padres millions in possible arbitration salaries and free agent dollars. If not, however, the team made an impulsive overreach on a player who had an impressive rookie season, yet batted .249 with a .745 OPS. Perhaps these are the sorts of chances a team like the Padres have to take. But they can’t afford to miss very often. It’s too early to label Gyorko a “miss,” but the early returns aren’t encouraging.
The Future: The Padres showed how well they’re capable of playing when pitching and hitting are working in tandem, going 16-11 in August. Not coincidentally, that was one of two months this season during which San Diego posted a positive run differential. Just imagine what this team could have been if it had generated any sort of consistent offense. (Consistently good, that is.)
Between what they already have in Ross, Cashner, Kennedy and Stults, the Padres have the makings of a good rotation. The final one or two spots in the rotation could be filled with someone like Jesse Hahn or a lower-tier free agent starter. San Diego wouldn’t even necessarily have to sign a bargain reclamation project looking to revive his career pitching in Petco Park, as it has in the past.
Yet so much uncertainly surrounds the offense. Can the Padres really believe in Gyorko, Venable and Alonso? Are Everth Cabrera, Cameron Maybin and Yasmani Grandal ready to be everyday contributors? What can Preller really do as the new GM to improve his lineup in the short-term? Does he tap into some of that pitching depth to get a bat? Does he take a chance on a past-his-prime free agent? (And if so, how much is ownership willing to spend?) Or is Preller left with crossing his fingers for a turnaround from the players he already has?
