The Cubs certainly weren’t expected to contend in a loaded NL Central with the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds. The Brewers emerging as a contender through most of the season (before their September collapse) didn’t make matters easier. But at least the Cubs weren’t going to be dead-last, thanks to the D-Backs and Rockies.
But thanks to the young talent team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer are developing, last-place finishes could soon be a thing of the past on the North Side of Chicago. Earlier this summer, Sports Illustrated declared that the Astros will be the 2017 World Series champions. Yet the Cubs currently look like they’re putting themselves in a better position for that kind of future.
Preseason Prediction: It isn’t entirely impossible that the Cubs could be a .500 team this season. They won’t be, though. They’re simply not strong enough yet. This is a team that could win somewhere around 75 games, though. They improved in the areas they needed to, they have a fresh new face leading the clubhouse in Rick Renteria, and they have some excitement ready to boil over in regard to some of these top prospects. At very least, they’ll continue to build intrigue over this ever-improving farm system. (Randy Holt, March 10th)
What Went Right: Though another last-place finish in the NL Central appears likely (barring a further collapse by the Reds), the Cubs had buzz surrounding them through August and September, as fans were intrigued by the young talent that the team was calling up to the majors.
The Astros may have had that “team of the future” look earlier in the season, thanks to developing stars like George Springer and Jonathan Singleton, but the Cubs snatched that title from them with infielder Javier Baez and outfielder Jorge Soler making their big league debuts. Both players made an immediate impact, which fueled that heavy interest (though Baez has shown he’s still a work in progress with his frequent strikeouts).
The Cubs also made the most of their best trade assets, spinning pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland in exchange for its top two prospects, shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Billy McKinney. Also included in the deal was starting pitcher Dan Straily, who provides rotation depth, and a player to be named later. That haul essentially set the bar for what other teams asked for in return for top starting pitchers leading up to the trade deadline.
What Went Wrong: Excitement over the Cubs’ position player prospects highlighted the lack of an elite pitching prospect in the minor league system. Promising arms like C.J. Edwards and Neil Ramirez are developing, but there was no one ready to help the major league rotation this season. Absent significant talent, the Cubs’ pitching was an issue throughout the season.
As of Sept. 15, the team’s 3.94 ERA ranked 13th out of 15 NL teams, though the staff didn’t just tee the ball up for opposing hitters, allowing a .251 batting average and .693 OPS that placed Cubs pitching in the middle of the league.
One of the worst culprits for the Cubs’ poor pitching was Edwin Jackson. He has simply been a disaster since signing with the Cubs. For those asking if the 31-year-old could possibly pitch any worse than he did in 2013, when he went 8-18 with a 4.98 ERA, the answer has been an emphatic yes. Jackson has a 6.09 ERA in 26 starts this season and his worst hit and walk rates in five years. Amid rumblings that he would be demoted to the bullpen, Jackson suffered a lat injury and could end the season on the disabled list.
He’s under contract for two more seasons, Cubs fans!
Most Surprising Player: For all the Cubs’ pitching woes, they benefited significantly from Jake Arrieta turning his career around after bottoming out as a prospect with the Orioles. Getting away from the expectations he didn’t live up to in Baltimore, Arrieta thrived with the ol’ change of scenery in his first full season with the Cubs. With Samardzija being traded, the 28-year-old right-hander assumed the role of staff ace and pitched like a No. 1 starter.
In 23 starts (and two likely remaining this season), Arrieta has a 2.82 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140.2 innings, easily the best numbers of his five-year major league career. He threw 170.2 innings in 2012, between the minors and majors, and will finish short of that workload. But could Arrieta start 30 to 33 games and pitch 200 innings for the Cubs in 2015? And if the front office doesn’t sign an ace-caliber starter in free agency, can the rotation succeed with him as the No. 1 guy next year?
Most Disappointing Player: Travis Wood went into the season viewed as a top-three starter for the Cubs, yet regressed badly after a promising 2013. His ERA increased from 3.11 to 5.03, while allowing nearly 10 hits and four walks per nine innings.
Wood threw 200 major league innings for the first time last season, but has hit that threshold twice between the minors and majors during his career. So workload wouldn’t appear to be an issue, though it’s always possible that he wore down a bit. According to FanGraphs, Wood used his slider and cutter less this season, throwing his fastball and curveball more often. That may be because he’s losing velocity on that cutter, dipping from 87 mph last year to 85 this season.
Perhaps Wood was miscast as a top-three starter and is better suited for the back part of the Cubs’ rotation.
The Future: Here’s where the fun is. With Baez, Soler and Arismendy Alcantara now in the majors, joining Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo (who cracked the 30-home run barrier this season), the Cubs are assembling the core of a potential playoff contender. Russell and Kris Bryant (43 homers, 110 RBI and a 1.098 between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa this year) are still to come.
After acquiring Russell, the question became what the Cubs would do with three shortstops — Castro, Baez and Russell — in their organization. However, accumulating talent is not the wrong way to go. The Cubs could conceivably make room for all three in their major league lineup, perhaps with Russell at shortstop, Baez at second base and Castro playing third. (That would push Bryant to the outfield.) But they also have some trade pieces to bring in some pitching.
Could one of those players be the centerpiece of a deal for Cole Hamels? The Cubs claimed Hamels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, but weren’t able to work out an in-season deal with the Phillies. Perhaps those negotiations can be revisited in the offseason, with some of the preliminary work already done.
Or the Cubs could hang on to their young talent and throw money at a top free agent pitcher like Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields. That’s been the deep shot down the field that Epstein and Hoyer haven’t yet been able to complete, after losing out on Anibal Sanchez and Masahiro Tanaka during the past two offseasons. Clearly, this is the move that the front office feels it needs to make and this winter could be when it’s finally done.
The Cubs have the depth of a good rotation with Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Felix Doubront and Tsuyoshi Wada. If Wood and/or Jackson can rebound next year, that would be even better. Perhaps Jacob Turner could be in the mix as well. But a No. 1 starter is needed to tie this whole thing together. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts has to bankroll such a signing and not let his front office down.
