Reports coming out of our nation’s capital are indiciating that Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson is looking to have top prospect Bryce Harper start the year in DC in right field, with incumbent right fielder Jayson Werth shifting to center. My immediate thoughts are that the team is rushing Harper, and that they should let him at least start the season in the minor leagues.
Harper started the year in high-A Hagerstown, and was dominant. In 72 games, Harper hit .318/.423/.554 with 14 homers, 44 walks, 61 strikeouts, and 19 stolen bases. That led to a promotion for Harper in July to AA Harrisburg, where he hit the first real adversity of his pro career, hitting just .256/.329/.395 with 3 homers, 15 walks, 26 strikeouts, and 7 stolen bases in 37 games. He suffered an ankle sprain late in the season that put him out for the remainder of the year, including Harrisburg’s brief time in the Eastern League playoffs. Harper was healthy enough to go to the AFL, and he once again dominated, hitting .333/.400/.634 with 6 homers, 11 walks, 22 strikeouts, and 4 stolen bases in 25 games. So if you throw everything into a blender for Harper’s season, he hit .304/.393/.527 with 23 home runs, 70 walks, 109 strikeouts, and 30 stolen bases. At age 18. That’s pretty damn good. The Hardball Times (which calculates minor league WAR in their player projections) calculated Harper as having accrued 4.6 WAR in his 134 games. Again….pretty damn good.
But what does this mean for Harper’s major league career? Looking at THT’s major league equivalent projection for Harper in 2012, they’ve got him listed with a .789 OPS and 1.3 WAR. Using that as a baseline, is there anyone on the Nationals roster that can immediately overtake that mark?
Well…no. Current outfielders on the Nationals 40-man roster include Harper, Werth, a converted infielder who will be starting in left field in Michael Morse, Roger Bernadina, and Eury Perez. Perez is a 21 year old who had a .633 OPS in high-A last season, and as for Bernadina, he’s managed to rack up 1.1 fWAR in 254 career games of primarily part-time duty for the Nationals, with a .668 OPS. That doesn’t seem like much of an option.
As for non-roster invitees, there are a few that Washington can go with. Washington has five non-roster invitees that happen to be outfielders: Corey Brown, Mike Cameron, Brett Carroll, Jason Michaels, and Xavier Paul. Paul, Carroll and Brown both have minimal major league experience, with Carroll having a .603 OPS in 175 games of part-time duty for the Marlins and Brewers over the past few seasons, and Brown striking out twice in his three career plate appearances, all of which came last year with Washington. He had a .728 OPS for AAA Syracuse last year. Paul has received part-time duty over the past couple of years with the Dodgers and Pirates, OPSing .629 in 183 games.
The other two options are a little more interesting, but ultimately, disappointing. The 35 year-old Michaels has managed 10.0 fWAR over his career, but just 0.6 fWAR over the last four seasons, spent with the Indians, Pirates, and Astros. He’s been mostly a part-time player as well, not having more than 321 plate appearances in a season since 2006. Last season was a disaster for him, as he hit .199/.256/.295 for Houston. Cameron really hasn’t been any better than Michaels after a pair of disastrously bad seasons spent with the Red Sox and Marlins. He’s been worth 0.3 fWAR, and has only gotten 449 plate appearances due to injury and ineffectiveness.
Overall, Harper might actually be the best option for Washington in the outfield based on what they have right now. Cameron or Michaels could be a good veteran bat off the bench, but I don’t think I’d want either getting a full slate of plate appearances. While Harper still could use some improvements in his game, I really don’t think that Washington has a better possible option right now…unless of course, they want to irritate their fanbase by trotting out an inferior player under the guise of “letting Harper mature”. If the organization had better options ready to roll at the major league level, I could definitely see going with that option. But right now in Washington, Harper looks like he’s going to be the man, and I’m not sure if that would really be a bad thing.
