We’re nearing the end of the first third of the season, and it’s a nice to sit back and reflect on how some rookies have started. We’ll take a look at how key rookies have done, and we’ll also note a few possible contributors that could see some playing time over the next 110 or so games.
American League
Mark Trumbo, LAA 1B (.259/.315/.463, 0.8 fWAR) – With the injury to Kendrys Morales, Trumbo’s early-season audition has become a full-time job. To this point, he’s performed admirably and could be a 2.5-3 win player. He could stand to strike out less and walk more, but the power (7 HR, 9 2B) is undeniable and makes him a valuable player.
JP Arencibia, TOR C (.244/.309/.520, 1.1 fWAR) – Arencibia has been what we thought he would be—a power-hitting catcher that’s okay enough everywhere else to be a very valuable asset. The batting average and OBP aren’t great, but with a .259 BABiP, that should go up a little bit, though probably not much. Considering he’s a catcher and has a similar line to Trumbo, he’s the most valuable so far.
Eric Hosmer, KC 1B (.288/.348/.525, 0.3 fWAR) – Hosmer has only been up a few weeks and has played in many fewer games than either Trumbo or Arencibia, but he’s productive. Hosmer has more potential than the other two hitters, but he has to play catch-up with the rest of his stiff competition.Zach Britton, BAL SP (5-2, 2.14 ERA, 1.74 K/BB, 1.0 fWAR) –Britton wasn’t supposed to be up yet, but an injury to Brian Matusz gave him an opportunity. And Britton has capitalized. The K/BB ratio is subpar, and his ERA will go up (his FIP is 3.63, meaning his ERA will probably go up a run or so). But he gets tons of ground balls and gives the Orioles plenty of innings.
Michael Pineda, SEA SP (6-2, 2.16 ERA, 4.36 K/BB, 1.9 fWAR) – Pineda surprisingly won the fifth starting spot out of Spring Training, but he’s done his best to back it up. His 4.36 K/BB ratio is elite, and while he probably won’t keep it up as the season goes on, he’s easily the best rookie pitcher to this point.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB SP (5-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.71 K/BB, 0.6 fWAR) –HellBoy has had a nice start to the season, but his peripherals aren’t as good as we might have expected, especially his BB ratio of 3.71 per 9. He’ll need to improve to catch up to the other pitchers.
Possible additions – Mike Moustakas (KC 3B) good join his teammate Hosmer in the majors, and his power could be the best of the group. Jemile Weeks (OAK 2B) could be getting The Call soon if Mark Ellis can’t do better (.206/.243/.281). Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE 3B) doesn’t have the flash of Moustakas, but the Indians may have more of a need to call him up. Jesus Montero (NYY DH/C) has the potential, but I’m not sure they’ll give him much of a shot this season. Jordan Walden (LAA CP) has already done a nice job, but with this strong class, a closer may not get much of a look. Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery (KC SP) both have a lot of talent, but they have a long way to go to catch up to Pineda.
National League
Darwin Barney, CHC 2B (.315/.343/.394, 0.9 fWAR) – Barney’s off to a great start, and without a strong pedigree, there are concerns about him playing over his head. He may be, but he is producing at the moment. The .336 BABiP is a little high, and he could stand to walk some more with some pop. But offense is down, and he’s been a valuable asset so far.
Wilson Ramos, WAS C (.277/.347/.447, 1.1 fWAR) – Ramos has always been known for his glove, but he’s also added significant value with his bat. More significantly, he’s added a new talent—walks—to his arsenal, which is giving him significantly more value. He’s a strong, underrated candidate that shouldn’t be ignored.
Juan Miranda, ARZ 1B (.277/.392/.494, 0.6 fWAR) – Miranda’s line is better than his counterparts’, but he has had fewer plate appearances and has to deal with a higher replacement level (first basemen need to produce more due to their relative competition at their position—first basemen hit more).
Danny Espinosa, WAS 2B (.206/.304/.413, 1.1 fWAR) – Strong defense, some patience, and a lot of power have helped Espinosa overcome some serious issues with the BABiP fairy (.236). If I had to put money on who should deserve this award by season’s end, he would be my guy. A bad batting average and his affiliation with the Nationals will probably hurt his cause.
Brandon Beachy, ATL SP (1-1, 3.45 ERA, 3.83 K/BB, 0.8 fWAR) – Beachy beat out the more-heralded Mike Minor for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation, but his ascension into national consciousness was derailed by an oblique injury. He was amazing before he went down, but being out a month may not hurt so much in a weak rookie class.
Craig Kimbrel, ATL RP (12 SV, 4 BS, 2.86 ERA, 1.0 fWAR) – It’s hard to rack up a win’s worth of value as a reliever over an entire season, but with Kimbrel’s ability to strike out hitters (13.91 K/9) and improved control (4.50 BB/9), he’s making a name for himself. Some early trouble holding leads has possibly put his job in jeopardy, but he’s still one of the most valuable relievers in all of baseball.
Possible Additions – Brandon Belt (SF LF/1B) should be getting a recall any day now, and with a weak class, he can overcome his slow start (.192/.300/.269). Freddie Freeman (ATL 1B) isn’t hitting and his defense hasn’t been as good as expected, but he has plenty of time to turn it around. Domonic Brown (PHI OF) just got called up, and again, the weak rookie class leaves an opening for his rise. Trayvon Robinson and Charlie Blackmon (LAD and COL, respectively) are a couple AAA outfielders really knocking the ball around right now and could get some time soon. Aroldis Chapman (CIN RP) still counts as a reliever, but he’s been awful and is now hurt. Julio Teheran and Mike Minor (ATL SP) have a lot of talent, but it’s not certain if they’ll have an opportunity.
Predictions
In the Junior Circuit, Pineda has the definite edge at the moment, but some possible low win totals may leave the door open for Hellickson, Hosmer or Moustakas. If I had to guess, Hellickson will win, but he may not be the “best” choice.
The Senior Circuit is pretty wide open. Scouts and analysts have concerns about Barney and Ramos going forward, and Espinosa doesn’t get a lot of attention. There aren’t too many flashy starting pitching prospects, and Kimbrel may lose his job to Venters, though perhaps not too much of his own doing. Belt, if he gets recalled soon, has a great chance to win the award.
