Yu Darvish is officially a Texas Ranger, as he has signed a six year, $60 million contract that will also offer $10 million in bonuses over the life of the contract. The contract is the largest ever given to a Japanese player, much like the $51.8 million posting fee the Rangers paid the Nippon Ham Fighters for the right to negotiate with Darvish in the first place.
Much has been talked about what Darvish brings to the table. At only 25 years old, he is a very polished and talented power right-hander, sitting in the mid 90s with his fastball and throwing four quality off-speed pitches, including two variations on the slider. Scouts have raved about what he could end up as at the Major League level, with views ranging from a #3 starter to the ceiling of a staff ace. He’s 6’5″ and is listed at 185 lbs., which leaves him with plenty of room to fill out maybe 15 to 20 pounds more. His physical profile is of someone who can throw 220+ innings at the Major League level, and with the pitching prowess he brings to the table, the combination is absolutely mouth-watering, hence why the Rangers signed him in the first place.
The contract itself is a good value for the Rangers. At $12 million per year, his contract asks him to be just over a 2-win player each year, and considering his ceiling, the value of the contract could pay off within the first three seasons if he ranks as a true #2 (4 WAR) or above. This is a great move for the Rangers considering they needed to replace their top arm in C.J. Wilson, who’s annual contract cost will be almost $16 million per season. For $3-4 million less per season, the Rangers will get a comparable pitcher who is just about to enter his prime.
However, when you look at the total amount the Rangers have spent to make Darvish a Ranger for six years, $111.8 million is a lot. Do you take into account the posting fee when looking at Darvish’s performance? If that’s the case, Darvish would have to be worth about 4-5 wins per season in order to make the total investment pay off at face value, let alone the Rangers winning anything on the back end of this deal. The total investment is approximately $10 million greater than what the Red Sox paid for Daisuke Matsuzaka, although as far as many are concerned, as good as Matsuzaka was, Darvish is the best Japanese prospect ever.
Many have wondered what Darvish could do at the Major League level considering the opposing lineups he had faced in the Japanese Baseball League weren’t of Major League quality. In reality, Japanese players are thought of as being on the same level as your high-end Triple-A players. The Rangers had looked to Japan for starting pitching support before, signing sabermetric fave Colby Lewis to a two year, $5 million deal that saw him put up 6.9 fWAR, so the Rangers did a good job of finding value in Japan-based starting pitching before.
On top of his baseball ability, Darvish brings unmistakable marketability to the growing Rangers brand. Darvish was a rock star in Japan, and had been heavily involved with the media since becoming a sensation at the age of 20. His 2009 work in the World Baseball Classic ramped up the media talk that he would soon be a major leaguer, which many believed only fueled his ego. He has been known to be a little bit cocky and somewhat arrogant, although it should be noted that it never stopped him from being dominant on the mound. Plus, he made it clear from the beginning of the process that he wanted to be paid more than Matsuzaka when it was all said and done, something the Rangers obliged both in the initial posting fee and the Major League contract. Combine Darvish’s arrival with the rumors of an upcoming major television contract and their fantastic pickups on the international prospect market, the Rangers are truly doing a lot expand their branding not just across the United States, but internationally, as well.
Overall, it’s a huge investment to make for the Rangers. But the great thing is that with their current Major League configuration, a minor league system that is amongst the best in all of baseball from top to bottom, and the money that has seen them turn from a mid-market team to very much a large-market player, the Rangers have made this particular investment with the hopes that in both their current state and any future state over the next six seasons, Darvish will be a major part of their pitching rotation. It wasn’t so much a gamble as it was a sound investment in their international scouting, marketing and development, and considering how well the Rangers have treated their pitchers in their recent rise to greatness, the Rangers are very much the perfect fit for Darvish’s first foire into American baseball.
