Miami
SS Yunel Escobar
2013 (Rays): 153 G, 578 PA, .256/.332/.366, 9 HR, 61 R, 4 SB, .281 BABIP, 3.9 fWAR
2014 (Rays): 38 G, 148 PA, .248/.313/.338, 2 HR, 5 R, 0 SB, .274 BABIP, -0.1 fWAR
The only Major League regular the Marlins got in the trade was Escobar, who had fallen out of favor in Toronto thanks to spats with coaches and some unfortunate eye-black choices. While he was making a modest $5 million dollars for 2013, the Marlins nevertheless traded him only a couple weeks after the big trade, netting them second baseman Derek Dietrich.
Escobar went on to have a typically good season thanks to his great defense and average production at the plate. He’s gotten off to a slow start in 2014 both at the plate and with the glove, but is still a bargain at $5 million this year and next. Dietrich, meanwhile, has shown promise at the plate and is only 24, which means he has a chance to be a part of what could be a good Marlins core going forward.
SS Adeiny Hechavarria
2013: 148 G, 578 PA, .227/.267/.298, 3 HR, 30 R, 11 SB, .270 BABIP, -1.9 fWAR
2014: 39 G, 158 PA, .273/.316/.371, 0 HR, 17 R, 1 SB, .331 BABIP, 0.3 fWAR
Known for his glove, the Cuban defector was considered a work in progress when given a 4-year, $10 million contract in 2010. Little did the Marlins know that the progress included him being the worst shortstop in baseball last year. Yeah, that’s a slugging percentage under .300. Add into that various fielding metrics not liking him and Hechavarria’s progress at the plate stalling and, well, not the best year.
He has turned it around a bit to start 2014, but it’s fueled by a BABIP that doesn’t match his line drive and ground ball rates. If he can get the fielding metrics to like him, he’ll turn into an asset on that alone, and he is only 25 years old.
SP Henderson Alvarez
2013: 5-6, 3.56 ERA (3.18 FIP), 17 GS, 102.1 IP, 57 K, 27 BB, 2 HR, .271 BABIP, 1.9 fWAR
2014: 2-3, 3.33 ERA (3.82 FIP), 8 GS, 48.2 IP, 31 K, 14 BB, 4 HR, .318 BABIP, 0.4 fWAR
Alvarez has always been perplexing. His numbers aren’t representative of his stuff, which includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s. He has worked on his off speed pitches each year, but he doesn’t have nearly enough strikeouts and pitches to contact even more than a guy like Buehrle. That being said, he’s a ground ball machine, hitting 53.5% in 2013 and sitting at 53.8% so far this season.
If Alvarez continues to improve his off speed usage and produces more whiffs, he all of a sudden becomes a great mid-rotation guy with a #2 starter upside. He’ll be leaned on more now with Fernandez’s injury, but if he keeps killing worms, he’ll be fine in the vein of Buehrle and much, MUCH cheaper.
C Jeff Mathis
2013: 73 G, 257 PA, .181/.251/.284, 5 HR, 14 R, 0 SB, .243 BABIP, -0.5 fWAR
2014: 12 G, 28 PA, .227/.370/.364, 1 HR, 3 R, 0 SB, .400 BABIP, 0.2 fWAR
Somehow, Mathis still gets work. He’s a good receiver and a decent catch-and-throw guy, but his offense is so bad that even giving him 73 PA is detrimental. Luckily, Salty has arrived to usurp Mathis and his stronghold on the catcher’s spot. Sweet, sweet Salty.
SP Justin Nicolino
SP Anthony Desclafini
OF Jake Marisnick
The non-Major League components, with all three prospects being middle-tier at best.
Nicolino started out like gangbusters in his minor league career, averaging a strikeout per inning each season until last year, where his strikeout numbers took a large dip and he got roughed up at Double-A Jacksonville. This year, his strikeouts are down to 3.8 per 9 IP. That is not good for someone thought to have such a big arm coming out of high school. At this point, he’s a back-end rotation guy, who might see work in the bullpen at some point.
Desclafini is the most timely of these prospects, as the injury to Fernandez has allowed the Marlins to call him up for his Major League debut today. Similar to Nicolino, Desclafini pitches to contact, but has kept his strikeout totals up, averaging 8 per 9 innings at Double-A Jacksonville this year. He’s a back-end rotation guy, as well, but FIP loves him, meaning that he could run into a stretch where low contact plus copious strikeouts could make him look like what Alvarez should look like.
Finally, Marisnick played very well at Double-A in 2013, earning a late-season call-up to perhaps find his way into the outfield conversation in 2014. Instead, he played himself back to the minors this year and has struggled mightily, hitting .221/.275/.324 at Triple-A. He’s still only 23, and with the outfield picture in Miami looking good for now, the Marlins can be patient with him as he figures things out. At worst, he profiles as a center fielder with decent power. At best? A 20/20 guy that could hit .300 with plus defense and a big arm. That’s why the Marlins wanted him.
Conclusion
With Buck, Bonifacio and Johnson becoming non-factors at this point, the Blue Jays have had to lean on Reyes and Buehrle to make up the bulk of the big trade. On top of that, Dickey’s arrival has not been what the Blue Jays wanted. All in all, the Blue Jays gave up a great majority of their young talent base they had accumulated to grab players to help them win now. Instead, they’ve gotten a lot of Reyes DL time, Dickey ineffectiveness and much Buehrle-ing.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have shed payroll (Man, oh man, did they), gotten younger across the board, and given themselves enough players where they can figure out if they have any pieces that might fit for the team they’re building around Stanton and (*sniff*) Fernandez. Hechavarria and Dietrich should continue to improve. Alvarez should start missing bats. One of Nicolino or Desclafini have a good chance to stick in the back of the rotation eating innings. Marisnick seems to be too good not to find his stroke again.
Add all of this up, and the Marlins get a bevy of young, cost-controlled assets that replace the bloated contracts they unloaded onto the Blue Jays, who are now scuffling with a surprisingly older team featuring a patchwork rotation, a bad bullpen and an offense that is a couple of injuries away from being nondescript to say the least. That particular point was the crux of the argument for the Marlins in the original deal, but now with 18 months worth of data, it seems like their intuition was correct.
The whispers that the Marlins might actually win this deal in the long run are starting to get louder, especially considering the NL East looks surprisingly deep this year and the Marlins are in the middle of that fight. Even with the injury to Fernandez, the Marlins should be excited to see what these players can do for their future, while the Blue Jays have to hope that things break their way in the competitive AL East with as injury-prone a team in baseball.
Jeffrey Loria might have been considered evil because of this deal (and many, many, many, many, many other things) but him pushing it to get done might make his team competitive as soon as this season. And that makes this deal a win for the Marlins.
