I’m mostly at a loss to explain Tyler Pastornicky’s AAA line of .380/.422/.430 for the Gwinnett Braves. Well, I can explain it–his BABiP is .424–but the line is just an incredibly weird one. In his 25 AAA games, he has 14 multi-hit efforts, and he’s been as ridiculously hot as Jose Constanza has been for the Atlanta Braves. That’s not that weird (guys have hot streaks), but how his OBP and SLG relate to it are. The .422 OBP is almost entirely built on his batting average after spending the rest of his minor-league career drawing walks, and after demonstrating some pop in the last year and a half, it has entirely disappeared in AAA with only 3 XBH. While the AAA performance is based on a decent amount of luck, Pastornicky is showing enough to make people believe he can be an everyday player in the majors.
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2008 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, Pastornicky was your typical shortstop prospect. He could field, but no one knew if he would hit. He immediately showed on-base skills in his rookie ball debut, drawing 21 walks in 50 games while only striking out 21 times. In Low and High-A in 2009, he again had a poor batting average, but he continued to draw walks. If you can get on base and play a good shortstop, you’re a prospect, but scouts still wondered if Pastornicky could hit enough for those on-base skills to matter. 2010 was another similar season for Pastornicky except for one thing: power. After only 24 XBH in 2009, he 31 in 2010, and scouts wondered if this meant that he was starting to develop as a hitter. Fast forward to this season, Pastornicky has hit .316/.362/.418, and he now looks the part of an everyday shortstop and not the utility player scouts believed him to be previously.
Pastornicky could always play shortstop, and as Kevin Goldstein stated, “The former Blue Jay can play short, draws walks, and steals bases, but how much will he hit?”. Defense was never the issue, but the quality of his bat caused scouts to question his ultimate ceiling. As I mentioned, Pastornicky has on-base skills, which means he has good strike zone judgment that leads to a fair amount of walks, and if you have plate discipline from an early age, it tells scouts that he may develop more hitting skills down the road. Hitting takes hand-eye coordination and bat speed, but even if you’re a little short on the two, plate discipline can make-up for part of it. Well, Pastornicky has always had bat speed, hand-eye coordination, and plate discipline, but the other part of hitting is strength. Scouts call it, “Getting the bat knocked out of your hands.” Hitters need to be able to drive the bat through the ball, and it appears as though Pastornicky has developed that ability over the past few seasons.
While all of this seems very optimistic, Pastornicky isn’t likely to be a star, but solid everyday players are nice to have. Pastornicky will likely never have 15+ HR power, and he may never hit .300. But if he can hit .280/.340/.400, he would be a very valuable shortstop for the Braves. The question now is when the now 21-year old will be ready. Alex Gonzalez isn’t an impediment to his progress, so it’s left up to Pastornicky’s development. Pastornicky was hitting well in AA (.299/.345/.414), but that’s not “mid-season promotion” good. That seems more like “We need a shortstop next season” good. Pastornicky might be ready for 2012, but he could likely use at least another few months in AAA. With Gonzalez performing poorly at the plate and the Braves without another option, however, Pastornicky’s debut may very well come on Opening Day as he may well be the best option.
