The Indians announced earlier today that Danny Salazar will miss the regular season with a strained right flexor tendon after the starting pitcher had an MRI done on Monday.
Salazar has been dealing with arm pain for much of the year, first being announced on June 6th when he missed a start, then it struck again when he was unable to pitch in the All-Star Game. Shortly after, he went on the DL after a two innings, five run appearance and he continually struggled after returning by allowing nine runs in five innings while striking out just three over his next two starts.
Some of this was likely due to not making a minor league rehab start and getting pulled after just one inning in his first appearance, but there was obviously some residual soreness even after his trip to the DL. After a good start on September 4th (1 ER in 5.2 IP), he was pulled after just four innings in his last start due to the same forearm soreness. Having diagnosed it as a strain of his flexor tendon, the Indians have announced that he will miss 3-4 weeks, effectively ending his regular season.
The good news for the Indians is that they are seven games ahead in the division and have a pretty strong rotation even without Salazar. Early in the season, when they had lost Carlos Carrasco for two months, the Indians were able to maintain a .500 record, going 18-17 without their number two starter. A .500 finish should be more than enough to eliminate the Tigers and Royals and win the Central division.
The postseason is where the real question marks arise. Corey Kluber and Carrasco will be the Indians one and two and, without Salazar, Trevor Bauer moves up to number three (number 1, 21, and 24 in fWAR in the AL). This top three can run with any team in the AL with the exception of possibly the Blue Jays and White Sox, and is certainly strong enough to support the second best offense in the AL.
Most likely, the Indians would have went into the playoffs with a four man staff and current starters Mike Clevinger and Josh Tomlin in the bullpen, but without Salazar, one of those two will likely have to jump into the rotation while Salazar himself may move to the bullpen should he recover quickly enough.
Here the obvious choice is Clevinger, although how each pitches for the rest of the month as regular members of the rotation could obviously change things. Tomlin appeared to hit an innings wall in mid-July after throwing just 65.2 innings last year following shoulder surgery, allowing a 7.96 ERA and 16 home runs in his last ten starts. He has only pitched one inning in September, but is now scheduled to start on Wednesday in the place of Salazar, so the Indians will get a chance to see if the rest helped.
The rookie Clevinger, on the other hand, has only gotten better. He allowed 14 runs in 14.1 innings during his first call-up, but since has held a 3.00 ERA with 27 strike outs in 27 innings as a spot starter and reliever. Most importantly, when Tomlin struggled, it was Clevinger who took his place in the rotation and he has been working over his last two appearance to get stretched back into a starter.
If Clevinger can continue his recent success, it won’t particularly set the Indians back in any potential playoff series, particularly considering how Salazar has played recently. This is especially true if Salazar is able to return and can pitch out of the bullpen in the ALDS and possibly return to the rotation in any subsequent rounds.
Having this happen at this time of year is unfortunate, as he won’t be able to make any rehab starts in the minors upon his return and it will be difficult to judge whether he is ready to pitch at the level he is accustomed to, but the Indians are fortunate that they found out early enough that they can prepare one (or more) suitable replacement options.
